ceasefire

U.S. President Trump said: I just had a great conversation with the President of Lebanon and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Both leaders agreed that in order to achieve peace between the two countries, they will officially begin a 10-day ceasefire at 5 PM Eastern Time.

According to Jinshi reports, market news suggests that the United States and Iran are reportedly considering extending the ceasefire for two weeks.

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (bullseye123) spent $40,000 betting on the prediction market Polymarket that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15 or 18. Currently, this position has an unrealized loss of about $34,000, with a loss rate of 85%.

According to Jinshi reports, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated at a government meeting that the ceasefire with Iran may end soon.He claimed that U.S. Vice President Vance indicated that the main issue between the U.S. and Iran currently is the removal of enriched uranium.

According to CCTV News, on the 11th local time, it was learned from the Iranian side that the United States agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets and agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. The U.S. has not yet released related news.

According to a report by Jinshi citing a reporter from Iranian state television, Iran's red lines include the Strait of Hormuz, the payment of war reparations, the unfreezing of Iran's frozen assets, and a ceasefire throughout the region.

According to Iranian media, there will be no negotiations before the ceasefire, and the delegation will not go to Pakistan.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

According to TASS: A senior Iranian official stated that during the ceasefire, Iran allows no more than 15 ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Iran's demands include the United States unfreezing Iranian assets within two weeks.

Due to Trump's announcement of a two-week temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, market risk sentiment quickly rebounded, and the three major U.S. stock indices saw a significant rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1300 points in a single day, marking its best performance in nearly a year; WTI crude oil futures, on the other hand, plummeted over 16%.Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, stated that the current market has confirmed a phase bottom and is moving back toward historical highs. He pointed out that despite the previous surge in oil prices and escalation of conflicts, the stock market did not show a significant decline, indicating strong market resilience, while the ceasefire has become a catalyst for sentiment reversal.He expects that the S&P 500 index may rise to 7300 points within the year, which still has about 7.6% upside potential from the current level, and is optimistic about the subsequent performance of technology stocks, software, energy, and financial sectors. Among them, the "seven tech giants" are seen as the core driving force behind this round of rebound.Several institutional investors also believe that as geopolitical risks ease and oil prices fall, the market has entered a "relief rebound" phase, combined with the approaching earnings season, making the current time a potential window for buying on dips.

According to a report by Jinshi citing CCTV News, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview on the 8th that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for two weeks does not include Lebanon and Hezbollah.

According to Jin Shi, citing the Iranian Tasnim News Agency, informed sources say that if Israel's attacks on Lebanon continue, Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire agreement.Iran's armed forces are locking onto targets, preparing to respond to Israel's attacks on Lebanon on Wednesday. A ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, is part of a two-week ceasefire agreement reached with the United States.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.76%, the S&P 500 up 2.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 3.5%. Tech stocks rebounded collectively, with Oracle (ORCL.N), Google (GOOG.O), and Tesla (TSLA.O) rising by about 5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.15%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) increased by over 7%.