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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continues" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "November 15" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 35.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $80,000 to $84,000 for the past two weeks. Huobi HTX's chief analyst Cloud believes that this is essentially a balance of two opposing forces: ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while exchange holdings continue to flow out, and long-term holders are only moderately cashing out. In the week leading up to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is likely to continue waiting in this range. The CME has only priced in a 16% chance of a rate hike in October, while economists generally believe it is close to a 50-50 chance. This discrepancy in pricing and opinions will make funds hesitant to bet in advance.If a direction is chosen in advance, the possibility of a downward test is slightly higher: the funding rate remains high, and the options skew continues to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls have not yet cleared out, and the demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, there has been effective support formed multiple times below $80,000 in the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false breakout.Confirmation signals for a breakout are divided into two groups: for an upward breakout, the daily close needs to be above $84,200, with a cumulative net inflow of over $500 million into ETFs for three consecutive days, and the funding rate not exceeding 15%; for a downward breakout, it must fall below $79,800, with a single-week ETF outflow exceeding $500 million, while exchange funds turn into net inflows. The true source of direction will come from the interest rate decision announced at midnight on October 29, Beijing time, and the nearly 89% pricing for a rate hike in December.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment products.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continuation" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "October 31" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 84.5% an hour ago to the current 53% (a fluctuation of 31.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of PC at NVIDIA, stated at the RTX Spark launch event that the RTX 5090 graphics card has not been discontinued, remains a core product, and will continue to be supplied.He acknowledged that supply chain capacity is limited, but NVIDIA is working hard to ensure the smooth launch of products.

According to Jinshi Data, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation is close to 2%, marking a policy shift, and the central bank's policy has entered a new phase where inflation cannot be allowed to rise further. Due to core inflation being close to 2% and the financial environment remaining accommodative, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates and adjust its monetary easing policy. The central bank will discuss whether to adjust the assessment of "core inflation close to 2%" at the upcoming meeting.Kazuo Ueda mentioned that the situation in the Middle East, demand for artificial intelligence, and exchange rates will influence the timing of interest rate hikes. The central bank has been monitoring the impact of the weakening yen and the Middle East situation on inflation. He also stated that it is difficult to make a clear statement about Japan's neutral interest rate, and the stability of 2% inflation is becoming increasingly important. The central bank will focus on consolidating the 2% inflation target. Additionally, Ueda noted that the main takeaway from this week's meeting (including the G20) was the communication with other policymakers regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict and demand for artificial intelligence on the global and Japanese economy, and there was nothing heard that deviated from the Bank of Japan's fundamental views. He exchanged opinions with Federal Reserve Chairman Waller but will not disclose specific details; since the meeting in Asheville, he has not contacted U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen.

Due to the impact of rising energy costs, the U.S. Producer Price Index for September exceeded expectations across the board, indicating that the effects of rising energy prices are being transmitted to various sectors of the U.S. economy. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the Producer Price Index for September rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year.Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. The report indicated that while fuel prices are rising, underlying inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain stubborn. With only a few weeks left until the midterm elections in November, the burden of living costs has become a central issue in the election.This data may also prompt Federal Reserve officials to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, especially as another report released on Wednesday showed that a key consumer price index in the U.S. for September rose more than expected. The report also indicated that price pressures are expected to remain high in the coming months. An indicator measuring input price expectations for the next six months rose to its highest level since 2022.

According to the latest Merkle Tree Proof of Reserves (PoR) data from Huobi HTX, as of October 1, 2026 (UTC+8), the reserve ratios of various mainstream assets on the platform remain above 100%, continuously ensuring the safety of user assets with sufficient reserves and committing to 100% redemption, ensuring that users can trade and withdraw at any time. As one of the earlier platforms in the industry to continuously disclose Merkle Tree Proof of Reserves, Huobi HTX has publicly disclosed PoR data to the market for 48 consecutive months, enhancing platform transparency in a long-term and verifiable manner.The specific updated reserve ratios are as follows: BTC (104%), ETH (102%), TRX (108%), USDs (104%), HTX (103%), XRP (105%), DOGE (102%), SOL (109%). Users can visit the "Assets - Proof of Reserves Report" page on the Huobi HTX official website to view this information.Since April of this year, to further enhance the visual presentation of US dollar asset reserve data, Huobi HTX has unified the display of USDT, USDC, and other US dollar stablecoins as "USDs." The asset data of each currency remains independently recorded and verified to ensure that the reserve information is authentic, clear, and traceable.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "US-Iran Ceasefire Lasting," the sub-market "October 24" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 87% (a fluctuation of 37%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, stated that the sell-off in the U.S. bond market is far from over, as increased financing demands from the government and corporations, along with weakened demand from some traditional buyers, are exacerbating the pressure on U.S. Treasuries.The U.S. is entering a phase where increased bond supply is driving up yields, with debt burdens reaching the highest levels since World War II, and it is expected to worsen in the coming years. Dalio believes that shorting U.S. Treasuries remains more attractive than going long.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "Ceasefire between the United States and Yemen," the sub-market "October 18" for the "Yes" option has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 91% (a fluctuation of 41%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Strategy indicates that its "Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index" rose to 34% in the third quarter of 2026, showing that major banks worldwide are increasingly adopting Bitcoin and digital asset-related services, although the overall situation remains in the early stages. Among them, Fidelity ranks first with 77%, followed by JPMorgan Chase at 47% and BNY at 46%.Strategy states that the increase in the index this quarter was mainly driven by several advancements, including the expansion of Bitcoin ETF/ETP product access, the increase in institutional custody services, and the development of lending services using BTC as collateral.At the same time, progress in the fields of stablecoins and asset tokenization has also impacted the index's increase. As traditional financial institutions gradually explore digital asset infrastructure, Bitcoin-related services are extending from investment products to custody, financing, and financial application scenarios.

The official account of Cardano announced that the payment card Cardano Card, launched in collaboration with Wirex, will be discontinued on October 31, 2026. The card can still be used normally until then.The post stated that the partner Wirex is transitioning to a non-custodial model and will stop its custodial infrastructure, thus the collaboration between the two parties will end on October 31, 2026. The official statement indicated that users holding the Cardano Card will be directly affected and mentioned that further arrangements for the project will be announced as soon as possible.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that on-chain data shows the average cost basis for Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) is $48,600, with the current price approximately 72% higher than their cost. This group has remained profitable since January 2023, with the last close to the cost line occurring in March 2023.The average cost basis for LTH peaked at $49,500 on July 30 and has since decreased by 1.7%. Since August 1, there have been 60 negative weekly changes out of 74 days, with the largest single-week decline being 0.34% on August 25, and the current reading is -0.06%. The analyst pointed out that this decline is still moderate, and if it continues to drop, it would indicate an acceleration of selling, while a return to positive values would mean that long-term holders are starting to accumulate again.

After completing a large STRC preferred stock buyback in September, Chairman Michael Saylor revealed that the company "still has room" to purchase more Bitcoin.Independent analysts believe this move is aimed at optimizing the balance sheet to support future Bitcoin procurement plans with subsequent capital reserves.

According to South Korean media Dailian, the Digital Asset Exchange Alliance (DAXA) has released the "2026 Digital Asset Policy Compilation." Professor Zhao Zaiyu from Hanyang University pointed out that since the ICO ban in 2017, domestic cryptocurrency projects in South Korea have continuously moved their issuance entities and business foundations overseas due to regulatory gaps. The token issuance of Klaytn is handled by a Singaporean entity, and Wemade's WEMIX is also issued by a Singaporean entity. Subsequently, Metabora moved to Dubai, and NeoFin relocated its foundation to Abu Dhabi, with the trend of industry outflow continuing to intensify.Experts indicate that the core obstacles are the regulatory gaps between domestic and foreign issuers and the difficulties in opening corporate bank accounts. They emphasize that "what Korea needs is not looser regulations, but clearer rules," calling for the Digital Asset Basic Law to clarify the licensing standards for issuance, custody, verification, and other business activities, and to establish special procedures for the return of core functions from overseas to the domestic market.

Robinhood Chain's on-chain activity continues to cool down. According to CoinDesk's calculations based on growthepie data, from October 2 to 8, the network's average daily transaction volume was 6.2 million, a decrease of 42% compared to 10.8 million from September 10 to 16, and a drop of 20% from the previous week; during the same period, the average daily active addresses were about 322,000, down 31% from mid-September. Robinhood launched this chain in July, allowing users to trade tokens and lend through applications connected to Ethereum, and plans to introduce around-the-clock trading of tokens linked to stocks and funds.Transaction volume has also declined. From October 2 to 8, the spot trading volume fell to $7.45 billion, down 21% from the previous week's $9.46 billion, with Uniswap handling about 77% of it. However, funds have not fled; on-chain lending and trading application deposits increased by about 2% week-over-week to $1.04 billion, and the supply of stablecoins rose to about $1.1 billion. Perpetual contract trading volume, on the other hand, grew against the trend by 26% to about $7.35 billion.Fee income has shrunk accordingly. During that week, users paid an average of about $65,000 in network fees daily, a decrease of 39% from the previous week, far below the peak of $8 million per day at the beginning of September. According to a report by Bernstein last month, Robinhood retains about 90% of network fees.

Cryptocurrency market analyst CW stated that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, demand-side indicators still show a positive trend. Futures demand has slightly retreated compared to the previous day, but the negative value of spot demand has narrowed, keeping overall demand in a relatively positive range.The spot demand, which had previously remained in negative territory, is approaching a positive value. Once spot demand turns positive, Bitcoin will experience strong upward momentum.