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Viewpoint: The cryptocurrency market sell-off is driven by macro factors, and a rebound may occur in the middle of this week

ChainCatcher news, citing analysts from The Block, pointed out that the sell-off in the cryptocurrency market on Monday was primarily driven by global macro factors rather than issues within the crypto market itself. Dr. Kirill Kretov, a senior automation expert at CoinPanel, stated in an interview with The Block: "We are in a period of heightened global uncertainty, with escalating tariff conflicts, frequent geopolitical hotspots, and conflicting macro signals all converging. In this environment, investors are pulling out of risk assets and moving towards what are considered safer assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and gold. Cryptocurrencies, especially altcoins, are bearing the brunt of the pressure."Despite the market facing a sell-off, some analysts still believe there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Analyst Chu from BRN stated that the oversold condition could trigger a rebound in the middle of this week, depending on the upcoming economic data.Chu said, "As the short-term overselling of risk assets intensifies, we may see some short-term relief in the next day or two. With the release of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, U.S. CPI and initial jobless claims on Thursday, and PPI along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data on Friday, the market could experience at least a few weeks of a 'dead cat bounce' that may start as early as Wednesday."

Arthur Hayes: Even if the U.S. stock market continues to decline due to tariffs and other factors, he still believes that BTC can reach $250,000 by the end of the year

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog post: "Bitcoin value = technology + fiat liquidity. This technology is effective, and there will be no significant changes in the near future, whether good or bad. Therefore, Bitcoin trading is entirely based on the market's expectations of future fiat currency supply. If my analysis of the Fed's major shift from Treasury bond QT to QE is correct, then Bitcoin touched a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we are starting to move towards $250,000 by the end of the year.Of course, this is not an exact science, but if I take gold as an example, if I had to bet on whether Bitcoin would hit $76,500 or $110,000 first, I would bet on the latter. Even if the U.S. stock market continues to decline due to tariffs, collapsing earnings expectations, or decreased foreign demand, I still believe the probability of Bitcoin continuing to rise is greater. Acknowledging the pros and cons, Maelstrom is cautiously deploying capital. We do not use leverage, and we make small purchases relative to the size of our total portfolio. We have been buying Bitcoin and altcoins at all levels between $90,000 and $76,500. The speed of capital deployment will accelerate or slow down based on the accuracy of my predictions. I still believe that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by the end of the year."

Matrixport: Liquidity indicators may not accurately predict BTC trends; attention should be paid to native crypto driving factors or policy impacts

ChainCatcher news, according to Matrixport analysis, the correlation between the rise in global liquidity and the increase in Bitcoin prices has certain limitations. The global liquidity indicator, measured by the total money supply of 28 central banks (in USD terms), although visually correlated with Bitcoin price trends, has its predictive accuracy questioned due to the non-stationarity of the time series and scale differences.The analysis points out that while the growth of money supply may have a lagging effect on the Bitcoin market, this lag time lacks strong theoretical support. Furthermore, although the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has slightly increased in recent years, it remains below the 60% peak during COVID, indicating that Bitcoin trading is more driven by its own dynamics rather than acting entirely as a proxy asset for tech stocks.Matrixport believes that the broad consolidation of Bitcoin prices may continue, and solely relying on liquidity indicators to predict market trends may not be reliable enough. In contrast, focusing on native driving factors of cryptocurrencies or macro variables with direct policy impacts (such as political leaders supporting cryptocurrencies) may be more valuable. Although market perceptions may have mathematical flaws, their widespread acceptance could still have a tangible impact on market behavior.
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