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TRX $0.3363 -1.90%
DOGE $0.0869 -3.83%
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LINK $11.46 -0.69%
HYPE $83.15 +3.64%
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Bitfinex: The recent rise in Bitcoin is mainly driven by spot demand and short covering, with profit-taking potentially being the biggest risk

Bitcoin recently rose to a monthly high, with Bitfinex analysts stating that this round of market activity is primarily driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than new leveraged funds, thus providing a longer duration compared to typical short squeeze scenarios. As investors who bought Bitcoin in the past five months are currently in a profit state, the main risk of the current upward trend comes from profit-taking chips flowing into trading platforms.Bitfinex believes that the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases is an important factor driving the recent market activity. The initial phase of this rise was indeed driven by short liquidations. On the same day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $297.6 million. However, the subsequent price increase mainly came from spot buying. From the position structure, while Bitcoin prices rose by 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) only increased by about 4%, indicating that spot demand and short covering played a major role, while the impact of leveraged funds was limited.Bitfinex pointed out that the $68,000 to $69,000 range is currently an important support level, close to the average cost of buyers over the past five months. If Bitcoin maintains above this level, it will keep these investors in a profitable state, reducing the pressure of previously trapped chips selling during rebounds. In terms of funds, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 1, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about 82%. Bitfinex stated that if fund inflows continue for a week, it will further strengthen the market demand structure.However, Bitfinex warns that the current biggest risk is a large amount of profitable Bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest profit-taking market since 2026. Analysts indicate that if real yields rise again to levels that previously suppressed Bitcoin from falling below $65,000, macro factors could still quickly impact the market.

Vitalik releases research on "local mixing" cryptography: exploring next-generation obfuscation techniques, which may become a new foundational primitive in cryptography

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a new article titled "Obfuscation (Part 3): Local Mixing," which delves into a cryptographic obfuscation technique being explored—"Local Mixing." He claims it may become a new foundational cryptographic tool following elliptic curves, RSA, and lattice-based cryptography.Vitalik states that current mainstream obfuscation techniques mainly rely on complex mathematical assumptions, often resulting in extremely high computational overhead. In contrast, Local Mixing adopts a completely different approach, not relying on elliptic curves, large integer factorization, or lattice cryptography. Instead, it draws on experiences from symmetric cryptography and hash function design, continuously shuffling, reconstructing, and hiding circuit structures to eliminate information leakage while maintaining functionality.The Local Mixing technique primarily includes steps such as reversibility, hardening, mixing, splitting, crossing walk, and "gadgetization." By introducing random structures into the circuit, rearranging logic gates, and employing nonlinear hiding mechanisms, it makes it difficult for attackers to recover the original computational logic.Vitalik points out that this technology is still in its early stages, with security not yet validated over the long term and facing challenges such as random attacks and linear analysis. However, he believes that Local Mixing represents a completely new path for cryptographic exploration, aiming to construct more efficient indistinguishable obfuscation (iO) schemes.If breakthroughs in Local Mixing technology are achieved, it could lead to new quantum-resistant public key encryption schemes and promote the development of general obfuscation techniques. The field still requires years of cryptanalysis and optimization validation, but AI-assisted research may significantly accelerate this maturation process. Vitalik states that obfuscation technology is seen as the "final frontier" of cryptography because, theoretically, other cryptographic primitives can be constructed based on obfuscation and one-way functions. Local Mixing may not only reduce the costs of traditional obfuscation schemes but could also become an important direction for future cryptographic infrastructure.

The giant whale "sets 10 major goals": BTC is expected to fluctuate upwards this round, possibly rising to $100,000 by March next year

The whale "Set 10 Big Goals First" posted on the X platform, stating that it has opened a short position again at $76,000. The logic is quite simple: "When I established a long position around $63,000, the target was originally $74,000. I believe the bull market has returned, and this judgment has not changed until now. However, I have always believed that this round should be a volatile upward trend. At least currently, from a macro and market structure perspective, I have not seen enough signals to support this trend."Currently, most of the short positions have been reduced. "Not because I have changed my judgment, but to control risk first. If there is a continued extreme upward pull here, $82,000 and $84,000 are both possible, so there is no need to take a full position to bet that my judgment is definitely correct.If the daily line effectively closes above $80,500, then I will admit my mistake on this trade, close everything, and take a break for a while. If it ultimately cannot hold here and weakens again, I will consider adding back the reduced short positions."The whale "Set 10 Big Goals First" reiterates its medium-term view as follows: "In the medium to long term, I still hold a bullish view on BTC, but being bullish in the medium to long term does not conflict with shorting locally. I am taking this short position to profit from the pullback during the upward process, not to view it as a bear market again. If I am wrong, I will admit my mistake above $80,500. I still believe that we will see $100,000 BTC by March next year."
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