signal

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator measures the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain its position in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by continuous profit realization from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit margin of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator is used to measure the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by short-term holders continuously realizing profits.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that the employment report on Friday was strong, with non-farm employment increasing by 162,000, household survey employment growth exceeding 500,000, and the average workweek increasing, indicating that the economy was performing well in August.Wood noted that many will see more inflation and Federal Reserve tightening, but she sees greater changes. Overall inflation is at 3.7%, with other measures closer to 2%. Oil prices could drop to $30, stocks are reaching all-time highs as interest rates rise, capital expenditures have broken through a ceiling not seen in over 20 years, and companies embracing artificial intelligence are creating jobs faster.She stated that these are not isolated signals and may mark the beginning of stronger real growth and robust technology-driven deflation. The consensus is pricing for the old economy, and she believes a new economy is forming.

According to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin is approaching the "golden cross" technical signal where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historical data shows that since 2012, Bitcoin has experienced 12 golden crosses, with an average increase of 24.9% over three months for 9 of them, but only 3 have maintained for a full year without being broken by a death cross, with an average annual increase of 250%.What makes this golden cross different from previous ones is that the USDT market share is simultaneously approaching a "death cross" ------ its 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average. A decline in USDT market share usually indicates that funds are flowing out of stablecoins and into risk assets like Bitcoin, and this indicator has previously marked significant trend changes for Bitcoin. The combination of both further strengthens the bullish signal for this round of Bitcoin rebound.

Bitfinex published an analysis stating that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains steady above $77,100. Last week, after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, the basis remained relatively restrained, and last week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approached $1 billion, while Ethereum investment products saw a net inflow of $815.7 million for 10 consecutive days.On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized private demand growth in Q2 is 4.2%, and the deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year reached $1.8 trillion. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. Bitfinex believes that the continued support from ETF and stablecoin liquidity is sustaining prices, but expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside potential. If crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand is still solid.

Analyst Rekt Fencer released a chart showing the BTC to Nasdaq 3-day line ratio, marking three significant pullbacks: approximately -84.9% in 2018, approximately -80.7% in 2022, and currently about -54.3% in 2026.Rekt Fencer stated that after the first two times Bitcoin lagged so significantly relative to the Nasdaq, there were very strong independent upward trends, with prices subsequently surging. The current ratio has again dropped significantly, and history may repeat for the third time; the bottom is nearing, and BTC will strengthen again.

Rekt Capital posted on platform X that the stage lows of Bitcoin in February and June 2026 are in roughly the same price range, and the RSI is also at nearly the same oversold level. After both bottoms, Bitcoin rebounded to around $80,000.Compared to the peak in May 2026, when Bitcoin rises again to around $80,000, the overbought level of the RSI is significantly higher, but the price has formed lower highs. The RSI forming higher highs while the price forms lower highs indicates a hidden bearish divergence at the important resistance level of around $80,000 on the daily chart of Bitcoin. As long as the price of Bitcoin fails to break through and form a new higher high, this hidden bearish divergence will continue to exist.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated on Friday that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is "declining at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace" back to 2%, the Fed "has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next.Waller made it clear that he still adheres to the Fed's long-standing policy path of managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. This significantly increases the likelihood of the Fed's next step being a rate hike, which could create a divergence between him and President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminated the ambiguity that had been left previously. At the press conference at the end of July, Waller declined to respond extensively to whether a rate hike was needed to address the inflation issue, which has significantly risen this year and has been above the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years.

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

X account bitcoinarchive states that VanEck indicates all 12 quantitative signals show that the Bitcoin bear market has ended.VanEck also points out, "Saylor's strategy sell-off looks like a typical newspaper headline bottom."

According to Bitcoin.com, Tomáš Jiříkovský, the main suspect and programmer in a major cryptocurrency money laundering case in the Czech Republic, has sent signals that he may cooperate with the police investigation after the latest detention hearing at the Brno city court. The prosecution stated that he has not yet provided detailed testimony but has changed his previous stance of complete non-cooperation.Jiříkovský is accused of operating a dark web platform and laundering criminal proceeds, with the prosecution seeking a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison and asset forfeiture. The court decided to continue his detention on the grounds of flight risk and the possibility that he may still control some undisclosed involved cryptocurrency assets. The core of the case revolves around a donation of approximately $44 million in Bitcoin that he provided to the Czech Ministry of Justice: he had proposed to give 30% of a seized cryptocurrency wallet to the government in exchange for assistance in unlocking the wallet.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that gold and Bitcoin ETFs have returned to the top ten funds by trading volume, which may indicate that "devaluation trades" are replacing the AI craze.Balchunas pointed out that this phenomenon reflects the market's capital flow shifting from AI-related assets to asset classes like gold and Bitcoin, which are seen as hedges against currency devaluation.

The market is closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting this Friday. As U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, the market generally expects Walsh to possibly release dovish signals to alleviate concerns about inflation and fiscal risks in the bond market.Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America, stated that the market has gradually lost sensitivity to Walsh's previous verbal statements about "fighting inflation," and investors currently hope to see a substantive policy path to address inflation. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Basant has recently increased the repurchase of long-term U.S. Treasuries and financed the government through the issuance of short-term bonds, indicating some divergence between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve in managing the bond market.The article points out that Basant's shift of financing pressure to the short end effectively bets U.S. fiscal costs on future interest rate declines. If Walsh can promote interest rate cuts by controlling inflation and boosting productivity, the short-term financing model is expected to reduce government interest expenses; however, if long-term rates remain high, U.S. fiscal pressure may further intensify.The market also anticipates that the Federal Reserve may make adjustments to liquidity management and balance sheet policies. Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at CIBC, believes that quantitative tightening could begin as early as the end of 2027, provided that regulatory rule changes can reduce banks' demand for reserves.Currently, the Federal Reserve still holds about $1.6 trillion in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Walsh's statements at Jackson Hole regarding long-term yields, inflation, and the path of balance sheet reduction may become an important signal for assessing the degree of future policy coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that there are clear signs of recovery in the altcoin market recently, and the market structure is changing. The "altcoin season" may have entered an early stage. Data shows that the total market capitalization of altcoins increased by about $215 billion in just three days, with a rise of over 24%, pushing the total market capitalization of altcoins back above $1 trillion. Darkfost pointed out that in this round of increase, small and medium-cap altcoins performed the strongest. Due to their lower circulating market capitalization, these assets are more sensitive to capital inflows and also have higher bidirectional volatility risks.From the data on the Binance platform, the signals of recovery in the altcoin market have further strengthened. Since November last year, about 80% to 85% of altcoins have been below the 200-day moving average (200-DMA), while currently, 56% of the altcoins listed on Binance have regained this key technical indicator, indicating that the market may be entering a new cyclical phase. Darkfost believes that this trend reversal is related to several positive signals for cryptocurrencies recently released by Trump. Trump stated that the U.S. will "massively purchase Bitcoin" and urged Congress to push the passage of the CLARITY Act, while also claiming that his administration has ended the previous unfriendly policies towards the cryptocurrency industry.Related remarks have boosted market sentiment, and against a backdrop of low trading volume and reduced selling pressure, a large amount of capital has begun to flow into the altcoin market, driving multiple sectors to rise simultaneously. Darkfost stated that based on historical experience, the current widespread increase in altcoins is usually seen as an important signal for the early start of altcoin season. However, he also warned that the market has entered an overbought area in the short term, and investors should be cautious of a phase adjustment. If the overall upward momentum continues, new investment opportunities may still arise.

Cryptoquant analyst CW8900 stated that the BTC inter-exchange flow pulse (IFP) indicator has shown a bullish signal, indicating that the inflow of BTC into derivative exchanges is increasing, and leveraged investments are becoming active again.This signal suggests that the upward pressure on derivative exchanges is rising, driven by leverage, and the rebound is resuming after the prolonged adjustment phase that has been ongoing since July.

On August 20, CZ retweeted his views on Hyperliquid's introduction to the United States and stated that many people overlook the bigger picture. Policies cannot apply only to a single company or project; a favorable policy benefits the entire industry.Previously, CZ commented on "the Trump administration potentially introducing Hyperliquid to the United States in a compliant and legal manner," stating that this would open up more Perp DEX and decentralized services to U.S. users, which would be a significant boon for the entire industry.