signal

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about the U.S. stock market, as an increasing number of bear market signals indicate that the market is approaching its peak. The strategist team led by Savita Subramanian noted in a report on June 5 that about 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, with 17 out of 20 valuation metrics for the S&P 500 index showing "statistically significant overvaluation." In addition, the strategists believe that the performance of high price-to-earnings ratio stocks has been too strong, indicating "signs of excessive speculation."

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform that Bitcoin fell 12.5% in the past week, and the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%, which is significantly low. Historically, bear markets have pushed this indicator below 50%, indicating that unrealized losses dominate the market. In February of this year, this indicator reached 53%, and at the current rate, the 50% threshold is about to be breached. Darkfost stated that while this is a bearish signal in the short term, such periods have historically been profit opportunities for long-term investors.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "ETF Continuous Outflow, Bitcoin Decoupling from US Stocks ------ Are Institutions Running or Waiting?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sasaki Hoshino, Sevth7, Kid, and Grace will engage in an in-depth discussion around recent continuous outflows of Bitcoin ETF funds, the decreasing correlation between BTC and US stocks, and changes in institutional capital allocation logic, jointly analyzing current market sentiment and capital flows, and exploring the future direction of the crypto market.

According to The Block, Standard Chartered Bank's Head of Digital Asset Research Geoffrey Kendrick stated that Strategy's decision to reduce its holdings by 32 bitcoins last week may mark the beginning of a new phase of "outperformance" for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Kendrick pointed out that although the scale of the reduction is "very small," against the backdrop of Bitcoin's decline on that day, ETH/BTC experienced a significant upward movement rarely seen in recent years. He expects ETH/BTC to rise to about 0.04 by the end of this year, currently around 0.028. Kendrick maintains his price targets of $4,000 for ETH by the end of the year and $40,000 by 2030, and stated that the Ethereum treasury can "sell coins with zero necessity" through approximately 3% staking yields, making it easier to achieve a higher net asset multiple (mNAV) and financing capability compared to the Bitcoin treasury.

Tom Lee stated that the recent market anxiety, including the slight sale of Bitcoin by Strategy, is typical bottoming behavior rather than a deep-seated crisis. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred stock dividends. This sale accounted for only 0.004% of the company's over 843,700 Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, regarding the outflow of $3.4 billion from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for 11 consecutive days, Tom Lee believes that capital outflow is a classic lagging indicator of market cycle reset. Bitmine's macro strategy has not changed, and its plan to purchase 111,942 Ethereum for approximately $237 million is still underway, with its Ethereum holdings currently reaching nearly 5.4 million.

According to PRNewswire, institutional-grade digital asset options and derivatives trading infrastructure provider SignalPlus has completed a $50 million Series B1 financing round, with a post-investment valuation of $500 million. This round was led by HashKey Capital, with follow-on investments from BlockBooster and AppWorks, and Goldman Sachs served as the exclusive financial advisor.It is reported that SignalPlus is headquartered in Hong Kong and is dedicated to building institutional-grade derivatives trading infrastructure for the converging capital markets. Its platform provides professional options analysis, real-time risk management, and trading execution tools for hedge funds, market makers, proprietary trading teams, and asset management institutions, covering both digital assets and traditional financial markets.

Analyst Ali tweeted that the TD Sequential buy signal has appeared on the 12-hour chart for Bitcoin, which may rebound to $75,000.

According to BIT analysis, during the bull market from 2020 to 2021, smart contract platforms were widely expected to reshape some of the infrastructure and business processes in the traditional financial system. However, the high expectations did not materialize, and Ethereum's market share in the digital asset ecosystem has continued to decline. Currently, Ethereum's market share has once again fallen below 10%, shrinking by more than half compared to two years ago.This shows that ETH's relative position in the crypto market continues to decline. For investors with heavy ETH holdings, this trend is worth noting. The continuous decline in ETH's market share indicates that funds are flowing towards other narratives or ecosystems. If this trend continues, ETH may still face pressure and maintain a relatively weak position.

The crypto analytics platform Santiment stated that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of approximately $1.26 billion over the past six trading days, which may instead constitute a "contrarian buy signal" for Bitcoin. Santiment believes that the ETF fund flows reflect retail sentiment more than changes in "smart money" positions.The report pointed out that some retail investors have lost patience due to Bitcoin's failure to hold above $80,000 in May, with the current BTC price around $75,400, down from a high of about $79,000 on May 16. Santiment noted that historically, sustained ETF outflows often correspond to a phase that is "suitable for patient accumulation," rather than market panic. However, this view diverges from the mainstream market opinion. Most analysts believe that continuous outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETF typically indicate weakening market sentiment and that prices may face further pressure.On the other hand, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart mentioned that since the ETF launch, cumulative net inflows have approached $60 billion, essentially recovering the impact of approximately $9 billion in outflows from last October to this February, and he expects that as more ETF products are launched in the future, the scale of inflows is likely to set new historical highs.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that given the increasing risks of inflation, the Federal Reserve should no longer consider further rate cuts as the default plan. He pointed out that with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising costs of oil and other commodities could trigger broader and more persistent inflation. Therefore, the Federal Reserve should stop signaling rate cuts. Waller believes that stabilizing interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% is the right approach and indicated that if inflation does not weaken soon, the possibility of future rate hikes cannot be ruled out.

On May 18 and 19, Mentis's web3-alpha-scanner Skill scanned for long opportunities on the Hyperliquid token $HYPE for two consecutive days.On May 18, Mentis captured a strong long signal: two top smart money addresses simultaneously held large HYPE long positions, with a total scale of approximately $9.49 million, realizing a profit of over $830,000. On May 19, Mentis again indicated that $HYPE showed smart money accumulation signals in the $42-$45 range and provided a target range of $54-$60, after which the market quickly realized the gains.

HashKey Capital's fund announced the completion of a $40 million strategic investment in the options trading platform SignalPlus, which includes a $20 million cash contribution from HashKey Group.It is reported that SignalPlus focuses on options trading systems, automated market making, and structured product solutions, and is a leading institutional-grade crypto derivatives platform in Asia, holding a significant share in the mainstream options market. This round of investment is a continued commitment from HashKey Capital since SignalPlus's seed round financing, and both parties will deepen their strategic cooperation to jointly promote product innovation and global institutional business expansion.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen from $82,000 to $76,800, a decline of about 6%, but market data suggests that this drop may be an unconventional correction. Three signals behind this round of decline indicate market concerns about further price drops. First, ETF fund outflows are accelerating: since May 7, over $1.5 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a single-day outflow of $648 million on Monday, the highest since January 29.Secondly, aggressive selling has occurred in both the spot and futures markets: Glassnode data shows that the cumulative volume difference in the spot market has dropped from $16,900,000 to -$126,200,000, while the cumulative volume difference in perpetual contracts has fallen to -$368,500,000, indicating that sellers are actively selling in both the spot and futures markets. Additionally, hedging demand is rising: Glassnode analysts state that the 25-Delta skew of options has increased from 10.9% to 14.4%, indicating that options market participants believe the downside risk is increasing.Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, stated that the first support level is around $76,000, followed by the $74,000-$75,000 range. If this range is broken, it could trigger a deeper correction.

Data shows that the number of wallets holding at least 100 bitcoins (BTC) has risen to 20,229, an increase of about 11.2% compared to a year ago. The data indicates that, against the backdrop of market volatility, whales and institutional investors continue to accumulate bitcoins, reflecting stable confidence in medium to long-term holdings.

10x Research released a report stating that since the CPI data was announced on May 13, Bitcoin ETF holders have sold over $1 billion, and market sentiment has plummeted from 87% to 45%, while bond yields continue to rise (30-year yield has reached 5.12%). Inflation has become a focal point again, and cryptocurrencies are feeling the pressure.The report points out that Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average, and a confirmed drop below it would indicate a deterioration in momentum. Key levels to watch: $79,125 (short-term bull-bear dividing line) and $76,922 (major support level). Ethereum has triggered a bearish signal. 10x Research indicates that the current pattern is one of "two steps forward, one step back," but the cycle bottom is already in sight.

Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.