signal

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

According to market news, Goldman Sachs reported on July 18 that the Dark Side of the Moon released the Kimi K3 model, with 28 trillion parameters, surpassing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol on the Arena.ai programming leaderboard, reaching a new high for Chinese models with an API pricing of $2.3 per million tokens. Two days after the release, Zhiyu fell by 28%, MiniMax dropped by 16%, the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by more than 1.8%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively dropped by more than 18% from its peak.Goldman Sachs believes that Kimi K3 marks a turning point: a Chinese laboratory that cannot match the largest pre-trained computing power in the West has rapidly narrowed the gap with top American models through architectural innovation and reinforcement learning, proving that "scaling" is no longer the only winning path. Goldman Sachs warns that the "era of computing power expansion" may be coming to an end, and the investment logic for AI infrastructure built around "the more computing power, the better" needs to be rewritten. Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on MiniMax and a neutral rating on Zhiyu. Future attention will focus on the intensive release of 20-50 trillion parameter models such as Zhiyu GLM, Alibaba Qwen, and MiniMax M3 Pro.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin market sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish and has maintained this for the second week. A model that integrates multiple market data points shows that the Bitcoin status score has rebounded from a low of -42.9 on June 26 to +34.7. Over the past week, this score has remained in positive territory for more than 80% of the time, reaching a peak of +65.3 on July 10, indicating that the overall market sentiment has shifted from seller-dominated to buyer-strong.Currently, 79.4% of the multiple sub-indicators included in the model point in the same direction, significantly higher than this month's average of 57.3%, suggesting that there are no obvious contradictions among the data, and the current bullish signal is not noise. Moving forward, if the market sentiment score further rises above +50 and the consistency remains above 80%, the bullish trend will be further confirmed; if the score continues to fall below zero and consistency drops below 40%, the current trend will be considered invalid.

According to Jinshi, the Bank of America fund manager survey shows that cash levels have dropped from 4.1% to a "very low" level of 3.6%, triggering a sell signal under Bank of America's cash rule.

According to CoinDesk, in just the month of June, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $4 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT, as funds shifted towards opportunities in AI trading and the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below $60,000, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses. However, this outflow pales in comparison to the $2 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests in private credit reached $15.6 billion in the second quarter, with 10 out of 16 business development companies exceeding the 5% quarterly cap, and most investors receiving only partial payouts. Fitch expects redemptions to continue in the coming months, and unmet requests will keep several companies under pressure.Bitcoin ETFs have strong liquidity, and outflows directly impact BTC prices; in contrast, private credit BDCs are illiquid long-term instruments. The simultaneous redemptions of both reflect widespread market concerns about liquidity and risk. The energy market is also sending signals of risk aversion, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1983. QCP Capital summarized: "Different sectors, same pattern: the market's buffer space is narrowing." It pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has bottomed out, Strategy has sold BTC for the first time to pay dividends, and private credit redemptions have surpassed thresholds, all indicating that risk assets face a more challenging environment.

BIT stated in the latest weekly market observation that Bitcoin has recovered most of its decline from June last week, re-establishing itself above the 200-week moving average and entering the key confirmation range of $63,000 to $66,000.Ethereum's weekly increase is even stronger, indicating that this round of rebound has broader market participation.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

According to CoinDesk, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress for the first time on July 14 at 10 AM (Eastern Time), and traders are closely watching for signals regarding stablecoins, bank custody, and interest rate policy.

Glassnode stated that the Altcoin Cycle Signal has re-entered the "Altcoin Season" range. Typically, Altcoin Season means that altcoins rise while Bitcoin remains strong, but this time the situation is different. After nearly two years of continuous selling, the selling pressure in the altcoin market is gradually diminishing, while Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback. Currently, the return of this signal to the Altcoin Season range is primarily driven by Bitcoin's weakness, rather than a comprehensive strength in altcoins.

After reaching a new low of about $59,000 in 2026, Bitcoin has closed above $63,000 for three consecutive weeks, indicating that the technical structure remains relatively solid. This trend is similar to the bottoming pattern observed before the trend reversal in the previous bear market phase.Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 19.5% from the June high, the funding rate has dropped from 0.1% at the beginning of June to 0.02%, and approximately $540 million has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past two weeks, a significant slowdown compared to the $5.5 billion outflow in the previous month. These figures suggest that the market is releasing excess selling pressure while still maintaining proximity to key support zones.From the weekly chart, Bitcoin's current movement is similar to that from late 2022 to early 2023. At that time, the weekly RSI entered oversold territory and rebounded, forming higher lows, while the price created lower lows, resulting in a bullish divergence and becoming a key turning point before the upward trend in 2023. The current market is focused on the $63,000 area, where Bitcoin has formed a positive RSI divergence near this level, and has closed above $63,000 multiple times on a weekly basis, keeping the price above the recent low of $59,000.In terms of on-chain data, analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that long-term holders have realized supply recently rising to 12.42 million BTC, indicating that supply continues to mature and flow to stronger holders. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin selling pressure indicator has remained inactive for 1,256 days, marking the longest period on record, suggesting that Bitcoin may be stabilizing near a potential cycle low.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin developers are discussing the removal of the explicit Replace-by-Fee (RBF) signal from the Bitcoin Core wallet. Developer rkrux stated that since full-RBF has become the standard strategy, the BIP 125 RBF signal has become redundant and may leave unnecessary wallet chain fingerprints.Community member Murch noted that stopping the sending of replaceability signals is not simply about removing "fingerprints," as each sender still has to choose a sequence number for each input; currently, about 75% of transactions have used specific sequence numbers, primarily MAX-2. rkrux indicated that the default input sequence number should adopt best practices recognized by a broader wallet community.