yields

According to Jinshi, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini warned that inflation remains the biggest risk facing the market. Factors driving inflation include geopolitical tensions, de-globalization, and increased government spending. He stated that if the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaches 5% - 6%, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond could be "close to" 8%, which would be the highest level since 1994, a significant increase from the current level of about 4.58%.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury yields fell after the non-farm payroll report was released, with the latest 10-year Treasury yield down 1.76 basis points, reported at 4.457%.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury yields fell during the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Waller, with the latest 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 5.91 basis points to 4.481%.

According to Jinshi reports, Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategists have revised their year-end forecasts for the two-year and ten-year U.S. Treasury yields. The latest forecast indicates that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 4.3% by the end of the year, which is 35 basis points higher than the previous forecast; the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield forecast has been raised to 4.8%, an increase of 10 basis points from the earlier prediction. This revision reflects Deutsche Bank economists' latest outlook that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice this year, with each increase being 25 basis points.

According to Jinshi reports, as oil prices fell over 3% and the market reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar declined. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the probability of a second rate hike has decreased from 34% a week ago to 28% as inflation expectations cool. A survey by The Wall Street Journal indicates that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, scheduled to be released at 10 AM Eastern Time (10 PM Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49.

According to Jinshi reports, Castle Securities stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's commitment to lowering inflation has enhanced the credibility of the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting U.S. long-term Treasury yields and suppressing term premiums. Following last week's Federal Reserve meeting, trading in the U.S. Treasury market, which amounts to $31 trillion, showed that long-term yields were more stable compared to the two-year yields that are more sensitive to policy. The company's head of fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah, stated, "A highly credible Federal Reserve should benefit long-end rate performance."

According to The Block, Benchmark Equity Research reiterated its buy rating on Strategy (MSTR) and maintained its target price of $570. This target price still has about a 406% upside compared to Friday's closing price of $112.53.Although Strategy's perpetual preferred stock STRC experienced a significant sell-off last week, dropping to around $83, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer stated that STRC is not a stablecoin and does not have a Terra/Luna-style reflexive mechanism. Its essence is a perpetual preferred stock, backed by over 847,000 bitcoins (approximately $55 billion) held by Strategy.Palmer believes that the decline of STRC is not a "de-pegging," but rather a reset of the market's required yield. The company currently has about $1.4 billion in cash reserves, which can flexibly support dividend payments. Benchmark views this sell-off as a stress test of its financing model, rather than a structural deterioration.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury yields rose after Federal Reserve officials hinted at a possible rate hike. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is currently reported at 4.465%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is more sensitive to short-term rate expectations, is reported at 4.138%.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated on social media that Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most severe U.S. Treasury yield environments since its inception. Although historically, the U.S. federal funds rate and the U.S. dollar index have reached higher levels, the current long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields fluctuating between 4.5% and 5%. Coupled with the market's rising expectations for another interest rate hike within the year, this has led to sustained high funding costs and a tightening liquidity environment.Analysis suggests that in a high-yield environment, investors are more inclined to allocate to low-risk fixed-income assets, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that rising U.S. Treasury yields are often accompanied by tightening financial conditions, which puts pressure on Bitcoin's price movements. The current market is at a critical turning point, with the risk premium of risk assets relative to long-term Treasuries being compressed.However, if the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer in the future, and investors regain confidence in the bond market, capital inflows into the bond market may drive yields down, thereby expanding the risk premium and improving the investment environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market generally believes that this process may take several months, and its evolution will largely depend on the development of U.S. government policies and the overall economic situation.

Plume has partnered with the Ethereum liquid staking protocol ether.fi to launch a new RWA yield vault, providing ether.fi users with opportunities to earn tokenized returns on real-world assets. Plume stated that ether.fi has exclusively allocated $100 million to this vault, sourced from its liquidity provider base, as well as managed capital from existing yield products such as liquid ETH, liquid USD, and liquid BTC.A representative from ether.fi mentioned that there is strong market demand for yield products with institutional-level risk control and lower DeFi exposure. The vault will be directly integrated into the ether.fi application, allowing users to access previously more institutionally-focused RWA yields in a familiar interface. Plume noted that as DeFi volatility and security risks increase, users are turning to more stable on-chain yield sources.

According to the latest data from the Gate platform, the total staking volume of ETH on Gate has risen to 187,162.56 ETH (approximately 394 million USDT), setting a new historical high. The annualized yield for ETH staking is 4.16%, and users staking ETH can receive an equivalent amount of GTETH assets, achieving asset appreciation. Meanwhile, the staking scale of SOL has also reached a new high, totaling 580,400 coins.This service supports instant redemption, releasing liquidity and obtaining stable returns. In addition to ETH, the platform also offers multi-currency staking options. As of the time of writing, the reference annualized yields are: GUSD 100%, BTC 2.67%, SOL 8.50%.

BitMEX senior research analyst Shang Wu stated that the continued rise in government bond yields signals an impending "structural" shift, which will create a "super cycle" for Bitcoin's price increase.Shang Wu pointed out that under the pressure of the $39 trillion U.S. debt and massive spending on AI infrastructure, central banks will ultimately respond through currency devaluation and invisible liquidity injections. At that time, investors will sell off devalued traditional assets and turn to allocate Bitcoin, a scarce asset that cannot be inflated.Last week, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond broke 5.14%, while the yield on Japan's 10-year government bond reached 2.8%.He believes that while short-term volatility is inevitable, in the long run, this will be the biggest structural benefit for Bitcoin.

Analysis suggests that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and bond yields in major global economies is weakening the market's willingness to allocate to high-risk, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. At the same time, influenced by the situation in Iran, concerns about potential supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz are heating up, and some speculative funds are flowing into the commodities market for crude oil, copper, and sulfur.Market data shows that Bitcoin has dropped over 3% in the past 24 hours, retreating about 10% from its peak of approximately $82,500 on May 6. As the market declines, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience outflows. This week, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.26 billion, marking the largest single-week outflow since January of this year, with the previous week also seeing outflows close to $1 billion, bringing the total net outflow over the past two weeks to more than $2.26 billion. Additionally, there are views that funds may be shifting towards potential IPO-related trades for SpaceX, with the trading volume of some blockchain-based SpaceX IPO pre-market derivatives already reaching millions of dollars.

According to Jinshi, the main U.S. stock index futures are currently pointing to a lower open on Thursday, and U.S. stocks may give back some of their gains after the rebound in the previous trading day. The rebound in U.S. stocks yesterday coincided with a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices. Nvidia's stock price fell in pre-market trading, and the market's negative reaction to its earnings report may weigh on U.S. stocks today. Dan Coatsworth, market director at AJ Bell, stated that the market is focused on whether Nvidia can maintain its current growth momentum.

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted that the rising yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury (TSY) will force the Trump administration to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible, otherwise the traditional financial markets (TradFi) will face the risk of collapse. He also stated that he is taking this opportunity to buy the dip.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that as the market prices in inflation, global bond yields are rising.