yields

According to a report by CryptoSlate, the White House Economic Advisory Council recently released a research report indicating that banning the yield on stablecoins has very limited protective effects on bank loans, yet it significantly reduces consumers' ability to earn returns through digital cash. This conclusion directly challenges the core argument of the banking industry supporting the yield ban and provides new policy backing for the advancement of the CLARITY Act.Currently, Treasury Secretary Bessent and SEC Chair Atkins have both publicly expressed support for the bill, indicating a convergence of positions between the executive branch and regulatory agencies. However, the Senate Banking Committee has yet to announce a timeline for the bill's review, and political maneuvering remains the biggest variable.Analysts point out that if the committee can complete its review before the summer recess, the probability of the bill passing will significantly increase; otherwise, it will face the dual risks of election pressure and legislative delays.

The U.S. banking industry has questioned the stablecoin yield report released by the White House, arguing that the conclusions of the report are based on incorrect issues.The White House Council of Economic Advisers' research report states that banning stablecoin yields would have a negligible impact on bank lending, only potentially increasing loans by about $2.1 billion. Sayee Srinivasan, chief economist of the American Bankers Association, and Yikai Wang, vice president, stated that the core policy concern is whether allowing stablecoins to generate yields would encourage deposit outflows, particularly from community banks to large institutions, thereby increasing financing costs and reducing local lending. The American Bankers Association acknowledges that the financial incentives to pursue high-yield stablecoins will prompt households and businesses to move funds out of banks. Currently, the cryptocurrency and banking industries are negotiating the terms of a Senate bill, with the prohibition of interest payments on stablecoins being a key point of contention.

Patrick Witte, the Executive Director of the White House Digital Assets Presidential Advisory Committee, stated on Monday that substantive progress is being made in Senate negotiations surrounding the Clarity Act, with a compromise reached on the issue of stablecoin yields expected to hold, and the focus of negotiations has shifted to other unresolved topics.The issue of stablecoin yields was previously the biggest obstacle to advancing the bill. Banking lobbyists successfully persuaded some senators that providing yields similar to bank interest to stablecoin holders would threaten the traditional banking deposit base, causing the bill to reach an impasse. Witte stated, "We hope that the compromise reached will be durable and stable. Resolving this issue is a prerequisite for advancing other pending matters." Last week, the White House economic advisors released a report downplaying the risk concerns raised by the banking industry; in response, the American Bankers Association rebutted on Monday, claiming the White House's arguments were flawed.In addition to stablecoin yields, the bill also faces several disagreements, including illegal financial protection mechanisms in the DeFi space and a demand from Democrats to prohibit senior government officials (specifically targeting President Trump) from profiting from the crypto industry. Witte did not disclose which topics have reached consensus but indicated that negotiations have "made considerable progress behind the scenes," stating, "We are very close to comprehensively resolving these issues." The Clarity Act still needs to go through the Senate Banking Committee's markup review process before being submitted for a full Senate vote. Witte expressed optimism about reaching a final agreement, noting that many issues that previously seemed stuck have gradually been resolved.

According to Decrypt, the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a report stating that banning stablecoin yield products would only increase community bank loan volumes by 0.026% (approximately $500 million), with the overall banking sector loan increment also being only 0.02%, resulting in a net welfare cost of $800 million. The report directly refuted the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) warning that small banks would lose $1.3 trillion in deposits.At the time of the report's release, the Clarity Act, which regulates stablecoin yields, was still stalled in Congress. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the bill would enter the review process in the second half of April and aims to complete legislation before May.

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

According to Politico, three informed sources revealed that cryptocurrency companies and Wall Street firms will review the new stablecoin yield agreement text from April 2 to 3, which was jointly drafted by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks.Currently, the plan is to limit the review of the text to relevant parties and not to make it publicly available on a broader scale. Last week, parties visiting Capitol Hill were allowed to read the text on-site but were not permitted to take copies out.

According to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline from their highs, with investors gradually shifting their focus to the risks of the Middle East war on economic growth and inflationary pressures. The surge in energy prices has raised concerns about inflation, prompting the market to significantly lower expectations for a U.S. rate cut.Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade stated that a series of U.S. economic data released this week will be crucial for shaping expectations around monetary policy. Tradeweb data shows that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 3.893%; the 10-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.4%.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen below $68,000, down about 2% in the last 24 hours. The 48-hour liquidation heatmap shows a significant concentration of liquidity below $66,000, indicating that Bitcoin may further decline in the short term.In terms of funding rates, the perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, with shorts needing to pay fees to longs, reflecting the bearish sentiment in the market. The macro environment continues to deteriorate. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is approaching 4.5%, the highest level since last year, reducing the appeal of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The MOVE index, which measures volatility in the U.S. bond market, has risen 18% in the past 24 hours, indicating increasing uncertainty.Meanwhile, Ukraine's disruption of Russian oil circulation has derailed Trump's plans to ease supply tensions, with both Brent crude and WTI crude rising about 3%. The U.S. dollar index DXY has also risen to 100, further suppressing risk assets.

According to Jinshi, the yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury bond rose to 4%, increasing by 10 basis points during the day; the latest pricing of interest rate futures shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by about 15 basis points by the end of this year.

According to researcher Vadym's analysis, DeFi is expected to generate approximately $8 billion in on-chain revenue by 2025. The largest source is AMM trading fees, accounting for about $4.2 billion, with Uniswap, Meteora, and Raydium making up 62%; lending interest is the second largest source, around $1.76 billion, with money markets like Aave and Morpho contributing over 60% of DeFi's total TVL, although about half of the lending demand is due to cyclical leverage operations.RWA contributes $600 million to $900 million, with U.S. Treasury bonds making up about 41% of the RWA market. Perpetual contract funding rates contribute about $300 million, mainly from Ethena. It is noteworthy that more than half of the stablecoin deposit yields in the Ethereum ecosystem are below U.S. Treasury bond rates. Potential sources of revenue such as insurance underwriting and on-chain options have yet to be fully developed. Analyzing Sky (formerly MakerDAO) as an example, it is pointed out that about 70% of its revenue comes from off-chain assets, reflecting that TradFi revenue is accelerating into DeFi through licensed channels.

According to Jinshi Data, on Monday morning, Japanese government bond prices fell, and yields rose again to their highest levels in decades. Market concerns are growing that escalating conflicts in the Middle East will drive up inflation rates. The yield on 10-year bonds rose 6 basis points to 2.32%, close to the historic high set in January 1999.The yield on 5-year bonds rose 5 basis points to 1.72%, just a step away from its highest level since issuance. The fluctuations in Japanese government bond yields follow the movements of U.S. Treasury yields, which have been declining for several weeks and are currently at their highest levels in months.There are no signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, as Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran, demanding it open the Strait of Hormuz, or else he would launch attacks on Iran's power plants. This deadline will expire on Monday night New York time.

According to Crypto In America, during the DC Blockchain Summit hosted by The Digital Chamber, several U.S. lawmakers and industry professionals will discuss the progress of stablecoin legislation. Tim Scott (Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee) is expected to be asked about the timeline for the next markup of the relevant bill at the event.Insiders have revealed that negotiations surrounding the "yield" issue of stablecoins are nearing consensus. Cody Carbone stated that the regulatory framework may include a ban on providing yields on idle stablecoin balances, while allowing reward mechanisms based on trading behavior, with relevant parties expected to reach a solution within the next week. Additionally, Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks are seen as key legislative advocates, both expressing concerns about the banking industry's worries regarding funds flowing from deposit accounts to high-yield crypto products.Industry insiders believe that once these two lawmakers are satisfied with the text of the bill, the controversy over stablecoin yields is likely to be fundamentally resolved, after which regulatory focus will shift to issues such as DeFi and token classification.

Takatoshi Shibayama, the head of Ledger's Asia-Pacific region, stated that if the United States implements a broader ban on stablecoin yields, discussions will take place among institutions, stablecoin issuers, and regulators in other countries. He pointed out that countries like Australia have provided regulatory exemptions for stablecoin issuers, but currently, most stablecoins do not offer yields or rewards to users even outside the United States, in order to protect banking interests.If U.S. policies change, discussions between stablecoin issuers and regulators in various countries about allowing yields to be passed on to users will significantly increase. The U.S. Senate is currently advancing a cryptocurrency regulation bill, but provisions supported by banking lobby groups that prohibit third-party platforms from offering stablecoin yields have stalled the legislation, which has drawn opposition from cryptocurrency industry lobbyists.Shibayama also mentioned that the way Asian financial institutions are focusing on the cryptocurrency industry has changed, with a certain degree of decoupling from cryptocurrency and blockchain technology since last year. Institutions are more focused on the tokenization of financial products and the issuance of stablecoins, rather than on DeFi and staking, which are native cryptocurrency products. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are excluded from discussions. However, asset management companies are still considering launching cryptocurrency products to enrich client options.

Under the macro pressures of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and climbing U.S. Treasury yields, Bitcoin remains resilient, with prices staying above $71,000. Data shows that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar, has re-established itself above 100, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen above 4.2%. At the same time, Brent and WTI crude oil prices are nearing $100 per barrel, intensifying market concerns about inflation and rising interest rates. However, since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on March 1, Bitcoin has remained one of the best-performing macro assets.In terms of crypto-related stocks, Bitcoin-holding company Strategy (MSTR) rose about 1% in pre-market trading, having raised funds this week through the issuance of perpetual preferred securities to increase its holdings by approximately 11,000 BTC. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) increased by about 2%, while some Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to AI, such as IREN and Cipher Digital, saw slight declines.

According to market news, U.S. senators are trying to push forward the stalled cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, through a compromise on the issue of stablecoin yields.The banking industry had previously successfully lobbied to pause the bill due to concerns that stablecoin yields would siphon off bank deposits. Maryland Senator Angela Alsobrooks, who is involved in the negotiations, stated at a banking summit that both sides may need to "compromise a bit" to allow for innovation growth while preventing deposit outflows. Senator Mike Rounds pointed out that yields should be tied to account activity rather than the amount held.JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hinted at the acceptability of a transaction-based yield model, which is also the position put forth by the cryptocurrency industry at the White House meeting. The recent rules proposed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency leave considerable room for customer incentive-based yield programs. Although the banking industry continues to emphasize the risks of yield loopholes to their business models, the bill could still advance to committee review if senators reach an agreement on the new compromise.

According to Jinshi reports, although the recent rise in oil prices may exacerbate inflation, the disappointing non-farm payroll report has boosted market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 3 basis points to 4.1%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury dropped by 5 basis points to 3.53%. Interest rate swaps indicate that traders are betting the Federal Reserve will cut rates a total of 44 basis points before December.

According to Jinshi, after a slight fluctuation in U.S. Treasury yields on March 6, there was a surge, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.175%, the highest level since February 12. The rise in yields is attributed to concerns over intensified inflation triggered by rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, which has weakened the possibility of interest rate cuts.Abdelaziz Albogdady from FXEM pointed out that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have driven up energy prices, exacerbating fears of persistent global inflation.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the progress of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill mainly depends on Senator Thom Tillis's position. The White House has submitted the legislative text to Tillis's office, and both sides recently met to discuss what has been described as "moving in the right direction." The Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone expressed optimism about reaching a consensus on the stablecoin yield issue.Even if Democrats do not vote in favor, the bill could still pass the Banking Committee along party lines, but Tillis's vote is crucial. Industry insiders noted that the stablecoin yield issue has dominated discussions, causing other issues like decentralized finance to be sidelined. A crypto trading executive expressed "cautious optimism" about the Banking Committee rescheduling the review at the end of March.