yields

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated in a live broadcast that this week’s U.S. PCE data and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will become the market focus. The market is not only concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates but will also pay close attention to how it responds to inflation remaining above the 2% target, high long-term Treasury yields, and fiscal pressures.Lewis Huang pointed out that if the core PCE is higher than expected and the Federal Reserve signals a continuation of tightening or emphasizes anti-inflation measures, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may receive support, while interest rate-sensitive assets like gold and the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure. Conversely, if inflation data cools and officials express a tendency to retain policy flexibility, the market may re-evaluate future easing space, benefiting gold, non-U.S. currencies, and growth-oriented stock indices. This PCE data is generally in line with expectations, and the market focus has shifted to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.In addition, the situation in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz may still push up oil prices and inflation expectations. Traders should closely observe the U.S. dollar index, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the correlation between gold and oil; after major data releases, it is advisable to wait for further market confirmation of direction to avoid using high leverage to chase the initial wave of trends.

Due to the decline in crude oil prices easing inflation concerns, U.S. Treasury prices rose, and yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities fell by 2 to 4 basis points.Treasury Secretary Yellen announced plans to at least double the scale of Treasury buybacks, with the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries having decreased by about 9 basis points to 5.19%.

According to Fox Business News, Wall Street executives say that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is prepared to take aggressive measures to push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield towards around 5%.

Arthur Hayes reposted his interview video on the X platform, stating that the Ethena (ENA) ecosystem is currently facing a downturn, but as the market environment improves, its yield mechanism may restart. The ENA price has dropped about 99% from its historical high, with pressure from venture capital firms and a sluggish crypto market leading to a decline in yields, causing the entire mechanism to stagnate.Arthur Hayes indicated that if Bitcoin rises and triggers a massive short squeeze, the market basis may quickly widen, and a higher basis would drive Ethena's yield from the current approximately 4% up to 8%-9%. Once yields rebound, Ethena's yield-driven mechanism may re-establish a positive cycle, revitalizing the ecosystem.

On August 21, AI infrastructure investment is becoming a new variable in the U.S. bond market. Tech giants are expanding data centers, chip and computing power construction, and the demand for AI-related financing is rising, starting to compete with the U.S. government for funds from core buyers such as insurance companies, pensions, and long-term asset management institutions. As of August, the issuance scale of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds has reached approximately $1.7 trillion, setting a historical high for the same period. According to Goldman Sachs, the four major U.S. tech companies have issued more than $170 billion in bonds this year, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2025. Broadcom is seeking to provide chip and infrastructure financing for AI companies like Anthropic, with potential debt size approaching $100 billion.Institutions point out that AI is driving an overall expansion of duration supply in the bond market. With the government and tech companies simultaneously increasing long-term financing demands and a limited long-term funding pool, the market may require higher yields. St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that a capital competition is forming between the U.S. government's financing needs and AI infrastructure construction. Recently, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 5.34%, a new high since 2007, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.7%. High interest rates may raise corporate financing costs and affect AI company valuations through discount rates.At the same time, there are signs of weakness in U.S. consumer data, with Walmart's stock price dropping about 9% in a single day, marking the largest decline since 2022. With economic growth slowing and inflation pressures persisting, the Federal Reserve's policy faces a dilemma. The U.S. Treasury has raised the single repurchase limit for 10-20 year and 20-30 year U.S. Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. If long-end yields continue to rise, the market may revisit tools such as yield curve control or quantitative easing.

As the bond sell-off eases, U.S. long-term bond yields have retreated. The 30-year yield fell from 5.284% to 5.19%, while the 10-year yield dropped from 4.706% to 4.62%.The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with oil prices remaining around $90, intensifying inflation concerns.

Due to rising oil prices and increasing U.S. Treasury yields, gold prices fell on Tuesday, as the former two raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. However, gold prices have still risen over 10% so far this month.Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group stated that the rebound in investor demand and the increase in gold holdings by central banks continue to support gold prices. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting and Chairman Waller's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting will be key to assessing the interest rate outlook.

Eurozone government bond yields have joined the global fixed income asset sell-off. The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds rose to 3.2478%, the highest level since May 2011; the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose to 4.0954%, the highest level since November 2008.The market is concerned that the ongoing war in Iran may lead countries to increase spending, affecting fiscal conditions.

Castle Securities stated that the Federal Reserve remains unwilling to tighten monetary policy despite inflation rates being above target levels, leading to long-term bond yields being at multi-year highs, posing risks to the market. Noshad Shah pointed out that although the policy rate is 175 basis points lower than its peak, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are still at their highest levels in nearly 20 years. Shah warned that recent improvements in inflation should not be interpreted as a removal of interest rate risks.

Japanese government bond yields have risen, with the five-year bond yield reaching a record high, and the two-year bond yield also hitting its highest level since 1995. The rise in oil prices has triggered inflation concerns, and the market estimates the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in September at about two-thirds.Despite the rise in yields, there has not yet been a significant support for the yen, mainly influenced by external factors, including the increase in U.S. long-term bond yields and the strength of the dollar against the yen.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury bonds gave back gains, and the July ISM manufacturing data performed strongly.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. 10-year Treasury futures fell by 12 points, and the 30-year Treasury futures dropped by 30 points, after yields reached their highest level since mid-2007.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that we are observing rising yields and are striving to stay out of it.

According to Jinshi News, due to the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran, rising oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, leading to an increase in UK government bond yields.Tradeweb data shows that the yield on UK 10-year government bonds rose by 1.2 basis points, currently reported at 4.969%. Investors are awaiting interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

According to Jinshi, Lloyd Chan, a senior foreign exchange analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, pointed out in a research report that the US dollar may gain support in the short term due to high US Treasury yields and the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East. He stated that this week's Federal Reserve decision is likely to become a key catalyst for the market. Although no policy changes are expected, the market's focus will be on the guidance from the Federal Reserve.In addition, Chan also mentioned that the issue of US tariffs is becoming a focus of market attention again.

The Ethereum staking protocol Lido stated on platform X that the stETH Rebase has been completed as expected, and the missed ETH earnings due to insufficient calculations have been compensated, corresponding to an annual percentage rate (APR) of approximately 2.29%. At the same time, the protocol's oracle has been updated and passed the audit, with the new version improving report processing speed and helping to quickly identify the cause of similar issues in the future.Regarding the abnormal earnings calculation that occurred, Lido stated that contributors are currently conducting a root cause analysis, and more investigation details will be announced on the official forum and social media platforms. Throughout the entire incident, user funds have not faced any risk. The preliminary judgment is that the issue may stem from a special edge case: a validator in a pending deposit state was omitted from the earnings report, resulting in some staking earnings not being included in the calculations. Lido stated that a complete post-mortem report will be released in the coming days to further explain the cause of the issue, corrective measures, and subsequent improvement plans.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis indicating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to about 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and putting more pressure on risk assets. Currently, the futures market expects a roughly 38% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting, but a survey of 104 economists by Reuters generally expects rates to remain unchanged.In terms of the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler pointed out that BTC rebounded about 11% from a low of around $59,000 in June to nearly $66,000, but has now fallen back to about $64,300. The market is currently facing four potential risks: first, volatility has significantly compressed, with actual volatility in July dropping 31%, falling to the 8th percentile of the historical range, suggesting that more extreme market movements may occur; second, demand in the U.S. spot market remains weak, trading at a discount for about two and a half months, with no sustained inflow of funds; third, there is insufficient buying liquidity in the market, with stablecoins continuously flowing out of exchanges and new fund activity nearing annual lows; fourth, investors are still realizing losses, and some positions are choosing to exit during the profit recovery phase, putting pressure on prices.Additionally, Adler mentioned that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has not continued to make large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently, but instead published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, currency, energy, and technological development, attempting to construct a theoretical framework for Bitcoin as a result of long-term financial evolution. Adler believes that the market is currently still in a critical observation phase, requiring attention to changes in liquidity, the recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior improves.