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After retreating from a local high of $74,000, the future direction of Bitcoin has become increasingly uncertain. The current market seems to be at a critical moment, and it is expected to soon reveal whether the breakout can be sustained. On-chain analyst exitpump disclosed data showing that Binance's spot buying remains strong, with no significant imbalance in the order book and improvements in long-term conditions; however, some analysts hold a bearish stance, believing that recent trading volume is weak and that a divergence has formed at the highs. The current rebound may just be a retest of previous support turning into resistance, and Bitcoin is expected to potentially decline further in the short term.CoinGlass data shows that the price of Bitcoin has broken through the liquidity area around $71,000, and the next movement may attract market attention.

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted another $500 million in inflows, with 10 out of 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs being favored by investors. Additionally, since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin has risen about 12%, while gold has seen a decline during the same period. This performance has sparked discussions in the market about the safe-haven properties of both assets.Eric Balchunas further stated that it is relatively rare for Bitcoin to strengthen while gold declines in the context of rising geopolitical uncertainty, prompting some investors to rethink the roles of traditional "safe-haven assets" and "digital gold." This raises the question of whether gold has failed to act as a safe haven in the current environment, or conversely, whether Bitcoin is gradually taking on some of the functions of a safe-haven asset. However, there remains a long-term divide in the market, with some analysts believing that gold is still the primary safe-haven asset during traditional crises, while Bitcoin's market performance tends to be more volatile.

According to market news, Bitcoin is currently approaching the key resistance level of $74,000, with a cumulative increase of over 10% since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. It is noteworthy that this round of increase has occurred against the backdrop of declining risk appetite in global stock markets and a simultaneous strengthening of the dollar.The Dollar Index (DXY) has risen over 1% this week, reaching 99.68 on Wednesday, the highest level since November of last year. Historically, Bitcoin has typically shown a negative correlation with the dollar, but since Trump won the 2024 election and proposed pro-crypto policies, both have experienced synchronized ups and downs multiple times.

According to market news, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating above $72,000, while Ethereum has seen a slight increase. The market has entered a consolidation phase after the previous breakout. Although Bitcoin has successfully stabilized above the $70,000 level, which has been a resistance point multiple times, it has not yet shown the expected rapid advance towards $80,000.Expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East have boosted risk assets. If there are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that drive up inflation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain a tighter interest rate policy. Derivatives data shows that bullish sentiment remains moderately strong, with Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) rising to about 680,000 BTC, reaching a nearly two-week high, while open interest in gold-linked tokens XAUT and PAXG futures continues to decline, indicating that some funds may be flowing back into mainstream crypto assets after the slowdown in gold's upward momentum.In the options market, demand for high strike call options has increased, and the 30-day implied volatility remains stable overall, reflecting relatively calm market sentiment.

The inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has significantly rebounded. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of approximately $1.1 billion, with a single-day net inflow of about $462 million. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with around $307 million. The return of funds has also driven Bitcoin prices upward, briefly touching $74,000, and currently maintaining above $73,000, with a weekly increase of about 6%.Analysts point out that against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and increasing macro uncertainty, institutional funds may be re-evaluating Bitcoin as an asset to hedge against geopolitical risks. Some market observers believe that if ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, the market narrative of Bitcoin as a "safe-haven asset" may be further strengthened.

The on-chain contract trading platform QFEX has completed a $9.5 million seed round financing, led by General Catalyst, with participation from well-known institutions and angel investors including Y Combinator, Paul Graham, Nexus Venture Partners, Moonfire VC, Goodwater Capital, Liquid 2 Ventures, 468 Capital, and Ritual VC.The official statement indicates that QFEX positions itself as the first "TradFi native" perpetual contract trading platform, offering 24/7 high-leverage trading of traditional assets (RWA) such as U.S. stocks, indices, commodities, and foreign exchange, with leverage up to 50 times. The platform aims to enable ordinary investors to compete with institutions and high-frequency trading firms on equal terms. Team members come from top trading institutions such as Citadel, Jump Trading, Optiver, Jane Street, Tower Research Capital, and Flow Traders, possessing a strong background in traditional finance and high-frequency trading.

According to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin has risen about 10% this week to above $72,000, briefly breaking through $73,900 during the day, and is approaching a key price range that has seen significant turning points multiple times over the past two years—approximately $73,750 to $74,400.This range previously suppressed upward trends in the first quarter of 2024 and marked the end of a downward trend in April 2025. If Bitcoin can decisively break through this range, it will signal a new bullish momentum; if it fails to break through, it may confirm that the overall downward trend that began last October is still ongoing. Traders need to closely monitor price movements in the coming days.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is in a supply-thin area between $72,000 and $80,000. Data from Glassnode shows that the number of Bitcoins traded in this range is relatively low. Only about 1% of the circulating Bitcoins are in this price range.Due to the few holders who established positions in this range, if the price begins to break through this area, the market may encounter limited resistance. In fact, this means that if Bitcoin successfully breaks through $72,000, the move towards $80,000 could be relatively quick. Historically, Bitcoin has spent very little time trading in the $72,000 to $80,000 range.In November 2024, after Trump won the U.S. presidential election, the price of Bitcoin surged rapidly, with almost no trading volume forming in that range. Additionally, earlier this year, Bitcoin fell from about $80,000 to $70,000 at the end of January, and then further declined to around $60,000 on February 6, with this drop occurring in just a few days.Supply dynamics can be observed through Glassnode's Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric. The URPD shows the price levels at which current unspent transaction outputs last moved, effectively mapping the acquisition costs of existing Bitcoin holders. CoinDesk Research points out that during Bitcoin's recent consolidation in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, over 400,000 BTC were absorbed, indicating strong support below the current price.

According to The Block, K33 pointed out in its latest analysis report that Bitcoin has entered the most extreme weekly oversold range in history after experiencing several months of selling pressure. This selling pressure primarily came from long-term holders and institutional investors, but recently, these selling pressures have begun to ease, and the market is showing signs of temporary stability.K33 noted that historical data shows that after similar extreme bearish cycles, Bitcoin often experiences a phase of rebound. The bottom formation phase still requires time, but extreme overselling, derivative deleveraging, and the recovery of long-term supply all point to a potential phase of rebound.However, the options market shows strong bearish sentiment, with investors paying high premiums for downside protection. The negative funding rates indicate that there is still ongoing demand for deleveraging among bulls or for establishing short positions.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated, "Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflows again (net inflow of $225.2 million). Almost all products have turned positive in net inflows this year. However, Bitcoin is still down 22% year-to-date, with a cumulative drawdown of 50% from its peak."

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, addresses associated with the Power Protocol project transferred 30 million POWER (worth 16.23 million USD) from last night to this morning into Bitget and MEXC, causing the token POWER (Power Protocol) to plummet by 90%: from $1.86 to $0.17.30 million POWER was transferred from the team's associated multi-signature wallet 0x027A...cd6c to Bitget and MEXC between 11 PM last night and 9 AM this morning: of which 20 million entered Bitget and 10 million entered MEXC.Subsequently, the price of POWER began to decline, dropping from $1.86 to $0.17.

According to CoinDesk, amidst the impact of the Middle East conflict on global stock markets and commodities, Bitcoin has risen against the trend, reaching a one-month high and helping to revitalize the overall cryptocurrency market. After falling nearly 50% from its historical high in October last year, Bitcoin had once been in the oversold territory.Following the outbreak of this round of key conflicts, traditional assets have significantly declined, while BTC's relatively strong performance has reinforced its temporary "safe-haven narrative." Market analysis suggests that this round of increase is mainly driven by three factors:The return of the "fiat currency depreciation" logic, as the intensifying Middle East conflict exacerbates global fiscal pressures, which may lead to expectations of more easing and deficit expansion, strengthening the "fiat currency depreciation" narrative, prompting some funds to be reallocated to digital assets.There may be expectations for a de-escalation in the Middle East situation. Although there has been no response from the U.S., this news has strengthened market expectations that "the conflict may not spiral out of control for a long time," supporting the recovery of risk asset sentiment.The CLARITY Act is close to being passed, aiming to clarify the legal status of stablecoins, which is beneficial for the cryptocurrency market.

According to Decrypt, the Bitcoin rebound continues, breaking through $71,000 for the first time in three weeks, but whether this upward trend can be sustained still depends on the overall liquidity environment and geopolitical risks.Ranveer Arora, co-founder and CEO of Altura, stated, "The continuous inflow of ETF funds provides structural buying support, but the more direct driving factors seem to be position resets, reduced supply elasticity post-halving, and improved liquidity expectations. In the crypto market, once selling pressure is digested and positions start to rotate, the flow of leverage and derivatives often accelerates the price discovery process." Arora believes that Bitcoin's performance is still closely related to the global liquidity environment. He pointed out that Bitcoin's performance "is less like a traditional defensive asset and more like a high-beta expression of global liquidity conditions."Alex J., Chief Product Officer of LetsExchange, stated that Bitcoin's rise to $71,000 is "mainly driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and rising uncertainty." When asked whether this rebound can be sustained, Alex J. said, "It's unlikely. But the price is also not expected to drop significantly." He explained that when the global financial system experiences severe turmoil, significantly affecting the liquidity flows between different assets, Bitcoin struggles to compete with conservative assets like gold.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose 5.21% on Wednesday to around $71,900, breaking through the upper trend line previously seen as a "bearish flag," accompanied by increased trading volume that weakened the bearish structure. Analysts believe that $80,000 may become the next target for this rebound.Currently, the CME gap remains unfilled at $79,660--$81,210, which has persisted since early February. Data shows that out of 10 gaps since August 2025, 9 have been filled, leading traders to typically view this range as a high-priority target. If there is no significant selling pressure near $74,000 in the short term, the probability of Bitcoin making a push towards $80,000 is increasing. Currently, the probability of Bitcoin breaking $80,000 in March on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to 40%.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on social media that Kraken, the second-largest crypto exchange in the U.S., has just accomplished something no other crypto company has done before—obtaining key access qualifications from the Federal Reserve.Kraken's banking division, Kraken Financial, has received approval from the Kansas City Fed to open a master account with the Federal Reserve. This marks the first time a native crypto company has gained (albeit with limited permissions) direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment system.This approval comes five and a half years after Kraken submitted its application to the Kansas City Fed in October 2020. The account allows Kraken to directly access the Federal Reserve's payment system, but does not include the right to use the Fed's lending tools. The company can hold reserves and settle with central bank funds, but cannot issue loans, use the discount window, or operate as a traditional commercial bank.According to sources, Kraken's approval is seen as a pilot project to test this new model. This decision is historically significant for the crypto industry, which has long been excluded from the traditional banking system, and indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance. This move could trigger a wave of applications from other crypto companies seeking master accounts with the Federal Reserve. Custodia Bank, Anchorage, and Ripple's U.S. banking partner have all applied for master accounts.

According to market news, as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and the market re-prices the geopolitical risks in the Middle East along with the delayed expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin's performance remains strong. Analysts believe that after several weeks of consolidation, institutional funds are repositioning, providing significant support for Bitcoin's rebound, with spot ETF funds flowing back in, underpinning the price recovery.Additionally, on-chain and derivatives data also indicate a rebound in risk appetite, with Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest recording the largest single-day increase since July 2025, and leverage significantly expanding. However, there may be a time lag between ETF share trading and actual Bitcoin spot purchases, and the settlement and hedging mechanisms of institutional products may weaken the immediate transmission effect of short-term prices.

According to on-chain analyst MLM (@mlmabc), the total buyback amount of the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund has surpassed $1 billion, a milestone achieved just 15 months after the launch of the $HYPE token.The analyst stated that a total of 41.71 million HYPE tokens have been permanently destroyed, valued at approximately $1.35 billion at current prices, accounting for 4.17% of the total supply of HYPE tokens.

According to Decrypt, as large investors such as enterprises and exchanges choose to stake Ethereum for yield rather than sell during market rebounds, the number of Ethereum validators entering the queue has surged to approximately 3.4 million ETH, marking one of the longest staking queue records since the network transitioned to PoS, with an expected wait time of about 60 days.This figure has significantly increased from around 900,000 ETH in early January, indicating that major market participants are opting to lock up supply for yield.Industry feedback shows that current demand is primarily driven by large enterprises and exchanges seeking to generate returns on idle crypto assets. Analysts suggest that the narrative surrounding Ethereum's potential in payment infrastructure and AI-related applications may also be fueling this demand.

According to CoinDesk, despite the Clarity Act being stalled in Congress, the Trump administration is providing regulatory clarity for the crypto industry through executive actions.Analyst Brady Dale pointed out that Trump's appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC chairman could be a decisive move, as Atkins, a seasoned regulatory expert, has clearly stated that the SEC has the authority to establish the necessary rules for the crypto industry without waiting for congressional legislation. The appointment of new CFTC chairman Michael Selig further ensures coordination between the two major regulatory agencies. The two agencies are expected to submit draft rules this fall and finalize them in the spring of 2026, which will establish dedicated rules for decentralized financial networks for the first time, allowing exchanges to operate in compliance and making token sales possible.