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Today, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang analyzes the latest Fed interest rate decision and market trends. He pointed out that although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the 3 dissenting votes supporting a rate hike indicate a strengthening of internal hawkish forces. Coupled with sticky inflation and geopolitical risks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have risen to 72%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and further suppressing U.S. stock valuations.Combining technical analysis and practical operations, Lewis Huang stated that as rate hike expectations ferment, technology stocks and overall market valuations face significant pressure, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showing clear bearish signals; on the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain strong under hawkish support, while oil shows resilience supported by geopolitical situations.He suggests that CFD traders should align with the macro theme of "tightening expectations" at this stage, closely monitor the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting guidance, and flexibly seize both long and short trading opportunities, such as shorting indices at high levels and going long on the dollar in forex.

According to official news, Kaito announced the launch of Kaito Katalyst, a new reward layer aimed at creator activities, where project parties can pay based on the actual results brought by creators. This mechanism is based on Kaito's latest intelligence infrastructure and supports the distribution of rewards through various flexible criteria such as mind share, clicks, registrations, deposits, and platform activities. The underlying support comes from Kaito's data protocol with X, Brevis_zk's verification architecture, and its self-built attribution infrastructure.In the past two months, Kaito has conducted pilot tests in multiple companies across AI laboratories, consumer-grade AI applications, smart hardware companies, as well as in the cryptocurrency and financial sectors, with some projects set to launch soon. For TGE projects, Kaito has also introduced a dedicated format with no service fees: project parties must provide both a refundable deposit and a reward pool to ensure that creators are aware that funds are in place before the release. Each activity will announce the token distribution pool and attribution terms in advance, allowing creators to clearly understand the content and timing of their earnings.Under this mechanism, 80% of the token pool is allocated to creators who deliver actual results, while the remaining 20% is distributed to KAITO stakers and holders of YT-sKAITO on Pendle. Long-term holders and Yapybara holders can receive additional multiplier rewards. Kaito stated that this structure continues the Stakedrop mechanism that has been in operation since 2025, bringing approximately 136% annualized returns to the entire Kaito ecosystem. This model is also applicable to tokenized equity projects willing to use tokens or equity to accelerate growth.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin funding rate is showing typical signals before the significant increases in September 2024 and December 2022, indicating that pessimism may have recently peaked.From March to May, Bitcoin corrected over 50%, and the accumulation of short positions pushed the funding rate down to negative values. Subsequently, BTC rebounded to $82,000 in May. This signal has appeared again, potentially leaving room for a bullish reconstruction in the coming months. This indicator has been transformed into a monthly sentiment aggregation tool, which is more effective than the Fear and Greed Index.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the scale of BTC long-term holders transferring their holdings to trading platforms has recently risen to a high level. Currently, long-term holders contribute 5.1% of the total Bitcoin inflow to trading platforms. This ratio is close to the historical record, only having been higher than the current level in 2020, approaching 5.5%. This change occurred after a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.Since a 90-day moving average is used, this indicator has a certain lag, and changes will not immediately reflect the latest market dynamics. In the future, this trend is likely to gradually stabilize, but based on current data, the trading activity of long-term holders has clearly become more active recently.

According to Jinshi reports, Mabrouk Chetouane, the Global Market Strategy Director at Natixis Investment Management, stated in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is unlikely to challenge the current consensus at his second monetary policy committee meeting. Chetouane pointed out that Waller will not succumb to the temptation of a 25 basis point rate hike, although at this stage, it is almost impossible to bring inflation back to target levels by the end of the year.Analysts generally expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold on Wednesday, but the money market reflects a 38% probability expectation of a rate hike.

Citrini analyst Jukan posted on social media that the news of China's progress in DUV lithography technology is not particularly surprising, as the market had already formed certain expectations. He pointed out that The Information's related report only cited a professor from a transportation university in China speaking at an internal meeting in June and did not disclose more substantial information. Jukan believes that the sell-off reaction seen in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is an overreaction to this news.According to previous reports, The Information cited sources saying that a state-owned enterprise supported by Chinese state capital has begun mass production of domestically developed DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography manufacturing equipment, marking a key progress in the localization of China's semiconductor industry.Insiders stated that the enterprise plans to produce about 5 domestically made DUV lithography machines by 2026 and expand to about 20 machines by 2027. Although there is still a gap compared to the 131 immersion DUV lithography systems delivered by Dutch lithography giant ASML last year, the entry of domestic equipment into mass production is seen by the market as an important breakthrough in the localization of China's chip supply chain.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has dropped to about 0.42, which is approximately four times lower than the historical average of 1.7, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued range. However, this indicator has not yet fallen into negative territory, which means that the market has not yet experienced the "capitulation" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin 7-day realized profit and loss (Realized P/L) has turned positive from negative, currently at about $239 million, showing that on-chain selling pressure has eased. Analysts believe that the market is currently in a phase of undervaluation and short-term stabilization, but there are no signs of capitulation needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there a clear new round of demand-driven momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis indicating that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has recently risen to about 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing financing costs and asset discount rates, and putting more pressure on risk assets. Currently, the futures market expects a roughly 38% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting, but a survey of 104 economists by Reuters generally expects rates to remain unchanged.In terms of the Bitcoin market, Axel Adler pointed out that BTC rebounded about 11% from a low of around $59,000 in June to nearly $66,000, but has now fallen back to about $64,300. The market is currently facing four potential risks: first, volatility has significantly compressed, with actual volatility in July dropping 31%, falling to the 8th percentile of the historical range, suggesting that more extreme market movements may occur; second, demand in the U.S. spot market remains weak, trading at a discount for about two and a half months, with no sustained inflow of funds; third, there is insufficient buying liquidity in the market, with stablecoins continuously flowing out of exchanges and new fund activity nearing annual lows; fourth, investors are still realizing losses, and some positions are choosing to exit during the profit recovery phase, putting pressure on prices.Additionally, Adler mentioned that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has not continued to make large-scale Bitcoin purchases recently, but instead published a lengthy article recommending 38 books on civilization, currency, energy, and technological development, attempting to construct a theoretical framework for Bitcoin as a result of long-term financial evolution. Adler believes that the market is currently still in a critical observation phase, requiring attention to changes in liquidity, the recovery of U.S. demand, and whether investor behavior improves.

Citrini analyst Jukan published a response to the recent market rumors regarding bearish notes on NAND and negative news about QLC price negotiations. It is not surprising that SanDisk accepted a price lower than the initial offer when signing a long-term agreement with Meta, as SanDisk is one of the most proactive NAND manufacturers in pursuing LTAs, planning to allocate over 50% of its total shipments to such agreements. Based on this strategy, it is naturally willing to accept LTA prices lower than the current quarterly contract price, and it cannot be inferred that "SanDisk cannot seamlessly resell all orders to higher-bidding North American customers."In response to rumors that Chinese module manufacturers were rejected by domestic CSPs when promoting eSSD, Jukan explained that Chinese CSPs have direct procurement channels with Yangtze Memory Technologies and that the issue is not a lack of demand. Regarding the claim that large-scale cloud providers are driving down prices for QLC eSSD, leading to some volumes not being sold, he believes that new cloud providers have sufficient demand to absorb these volumes.Jukan concluded by stating that negative headlines are more easily amplified when storage stocks perform poorly, but the fundamentals have not shown substantial deterioration. He reiterated that he remains bullish on storage. Previously, Jukan had stated that DRAM contract prices still have about a 40% upside potential until the end of 2027, and HBM supply continues to be tight. This clarification on the NAND side further solidifies his bullish stance on the entire storage sector.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs. Quentin Halys," the option "Alexander Bublik" in the sub-market "Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs. Quentin Halys" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 57.5% an hour ago to the current 38.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since 2025, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has been continuously declining, reaching the lowest level since that period. Currently, the monthly average inflow of stablecoins (USDT, USDC) is about $2.3 billion, with an annual average inflow of about $3.7 billion. When the price of Bitcoin reached its historical peak, the monthly average inflow was $5.6 billion, and the annual average inflow was $4.3 billion. This dynamic clearly indicates the current weak demand and lack of investor interest. However, it is important to note that when the inflow of stablecoins peaks, it is often a lagging signal. When some investors accelerate profit-taking, exchanges increase the supply of stablecoins, while new investors continue to bet that the price of Bitcoin will keep rising. Currently, market demand still needs improvement.

According to market data, the current on-chain total value of the tokenized stock market has approached 2 billion dollars, with over 471,000 on-chain holders. The report selected four assets—NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla—that have effective two-way order books across various testing platforms for horizontal comparison.The research results show that Bitget rToken achieved optimal execution performance in both the $10,000 and $50,000 order tests, presenting the most balanced order book liquidity within a price range of ±50 basis points. Among them, the slippage for the $50,000 order was 58% lower than that of other tokenized stock products. This is mainly attributed to Bitget rToken's 1:1 alignment with the liquidity of traditional markets such as the NYSE and NASDAQ, providing more efficient execution for large transactions.

The overall profitability status of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another decline. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market where the price is above the holding cost, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%.However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires continuous verification. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1 for an extended period without falling below it; second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stabilize above 64%. Analysts indicate that this cycle has previously experienced a "false breakout." From April 28 to June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the profitable supply ratio once rose to 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the Long-Term Holder 30-day SMA indicator has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, which remains an important risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery. Although the BTC profitable supply ratio is improving, the market needs further confirmation of the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound truly marks the beginning of a new upward cycle.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that Ethereum rebounded after testing the lower edge of the price channel. Currently, $1850 is a key support level, and as long as this position holds, Ethereum may rise back towards the upper edge of the channel near $2060.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that there has been a noticeable increase in on-chain activity from the oldest group of Bitcoin holders recently. Data shows that the daily UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) movement for BTC holders with holding periods of 5 to 7 years and 7 to 10 years has exceeded 5000 BTC multiple times.Darkfost pointed out that the spending of UTXOs does not necessarily mean selling. Long-term holders typically move Bitcoin for two main reasons: one is for security considerations, such as changing wallet addresses which leads to the transfer of UTXOs from the original address; the other is to sell assets. However, current on-chain data does not show a significant flow of funds to exchanges, indicating that these long-term holders are not currently engaging in large-scale selling of BTC. It is noteworthy that this behavior occurs as Bitcoin tests the $60,000 mark again, similar to market trends observed from February to March this year. The market will continue to monitor whether the activities of long-term holders will further impact the supply and demand dynamics of BTC.

A report jointly released by the Bitcoin collateral lending platform CoinRabbit and the computing power platform GoMining points out that managing Bitcoin is more important than mining it. As the block reward drops to 3.125 BTC and the overall network difficulty approaches historical highs, low electricity prices and high uptime only constitute a survival baseline. What truly differentiates mining companies is the method of handling Bitcoin after it is mined.The report suggests that mining companies are shifting from direct sales to collateralized lending to cover recurring expenses such as electricity, custody, and labor. This approach retains exposure to holding Bitcoin while generating cash flow, avoids taxable sales, and preserves the deduction space for operating expenses. The trade-off is that mining companies simultaneously bear the dual risks of price and liquidation when Bitcoin prices decline.Jeremy Dreier, Chief Business Development Officer of GoMining, stated that the miners who can succeed after the halving are those who operate efficiently and have set aside cash in advance for this purpose. The current decline in Bitcoin prices has actually lowered the cost of increasing computing power, creating a window of opportunity for investing in expanding mining machines.