market

According to CoinDesk, it has been one year since the "1011 crash" that triggered approximately $19 billion in leveraged liquidations in the crypto market. Analysts warn that the potential structural risks that caused this flash crash still exist.In October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sudden flash crash just days after reaching a historic high of over $126,000, plummeting from around $122,000 to $105,000 in a short period, leading to a concentrated liquidation of large leveraged long positions.Mark Connors, an analyst at Risk Dimensions, pointed out that recent short-term price movements are still highly driven by derivatives such as perpetual contracts rather than on-chain data. The exchanges' inclination towards high-leverage products has also failed to eliminate the risks of flash crashes; moreover, the traditional four-year halving cycle has changed, with macroeconomic and political forces playing a more critical role.Chris Sullivan, co-founder of Hyperion Decimus, suggested that traders should avoid excessive leverage, closely monitor open interest, funding rates, and market sentiment indicators, while long-term investors should consider moving their assets off trading platforms to self-custody.

According to cryptocurrency analyst alicharts, during the current Bitcoin pullback, the whale group has adopted an accumulation strategy for mainstream cryptocurrencies.In the past 72 hours, the whale group has accumulated approximately 15,000 Bitcoins, over 166,000 ETH, and 45 million XRP.

Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 "3 standard deviation" trading days, exceeding the 8 times seen throughout the bear market of 2018. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme market conditions still occur frequently relative to recent price volatility levels. "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from the recent normal volatility range. Data shows that the average price fluctuation for Bitcoin during such extreme conditions this year is about 7%, lower than the approximately 10% seen in 2018.Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia, but during the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 times, the S&P 500's 16 times, and gold's 12 times. Market participants point out that macro shocks and the leverage and concentrated positions in the derivatives market are important factors contributing to the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large quantities, betting on market calmness, sudden news can force related concentrated positions to close, further amplifying price fluctuations.Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also enhancing the market's ability to withstand shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC - More Markets" on Polymarket, the "Arsenal FC" option in the sub-market "Arsenal FC Second Half (-1.5)" has experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 50% an hour ago to the current 27.5% (a fluctuation of 22.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the whale address of Polymarket user web3vc (0x11b...e3B6) withdrew 1.793 million UNI from the lending platform Venus 20 minutes ago, and then transferred it to Binance, worth 13.18 million dollars.If sold, these UNI would incur a loss of 3.17 million dollars; they were withdrawn from Binance to the BSC chain and deposited into Venus last year at an average price of about 9.12 dollars.

According to a report by Bloomberg, there is a significant difference in the revenue accounting standards between OpenAI and Anthropic, making it difficult to directly compare the annualized revenues disclosed by both companies. Anthropic includes total sales generated through cloud service partners like Amazon in its revenue, while OpenAI only confirms its net income share from partners like Microsoft. Neither company has disclosed standardized financial statements, making it challenging for investors to accurately calculate the actual business scale.Insiders say that OpenAI expects its actual revenue for the full year 2026 to be around $35 billion, which is about half of its year-end target of $70 billion in annualized revenue. Documents seen by Bloomberg show that Anthropic's actual revenue for 2025 is approximately $4.6 billion, while its then-disclosed annualized revenue has already exceeded $9 billion. Analysts point out that annualized revenue is typically extrapolated from short-term performance or contract value and cannot be equated to actual confirmed revenue for the entire year.

The prediction market platform Kalshi's Kalshi Research released a report titled "Who Trades Prediction Markets?", with a subtitle focusing on community income, background, and probability reasoning, marked for publication in October 2026. The report studies the composition of prediction market traders, with data sourced from administrative records and surveys, and compares it to a general population sample.The administrative data covers the residential ZIP codes of each direct trader on Kalshi since January 2026, and aligns with the median household income from the American Community Survey. The survey was distributed in September 2026 to the highest profit and loss traders across various market categories, excluding sports and special categories, targeting 2,360 accounts, with 325 completed responses, resulting in a response rate of 13.8%.The report states that the median income reflected by traders' residential locations is close to the national level, with a modal range crossing $80,734, and only 6.3% residing in ZIP codes with median incomes above $150,000. Among the highest profit and loss traders, 82% have never worked full-time in investment banks, hedge funds, private equity, or proprietary trading firms, 91% are not full-time traders, and 65% claim to have learned about markets and probabilities primarily or entirely on their own. In comparison to 1,005 American adults, this group scored an average of 2.42/4 on the Berlin Mathematical Test, while the public scored 0.62, with a proportion of 93% resisting the gambler's fallacy, compared to 57% in the public.

Russian President Putin stated that Russia is willing to supply oil and petroleum products to the United States and global markets, which will have a positive impact on the global economy. Both sides confirmed that the two presidents will continue to maintain direct contact.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia is willing to increase diesel supply to the U.S. market in October and may increase diesel exports in November and December.

The cryptocurrency asset platform Blockchain.com has submitted an application to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) seeking to obtain Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) licenses to provide event contracts (prediction markets) and cryptocurrency derivatives trading services to U.S. users.Blockchain.com CEO and co-founder Peter Smith stated that the company aims to allow users to manage digital assets, trade derivatives, and participate in real-world event predictions on the same platform. Currently, Blockchain.com has provided prediction market services to some international users through its partner Polymarket and supports perpetual contract trading through Hyperliquid.As the popularity of prediction markets rises, several cryptocurrency companies, including Crypto.com, Gemini, and Coinbase, are seeking to enter this field. If approved, Blockchain.com will join the ranks of companies that have applied for CFTC Designated Contract Market licenses this year.

Despite the S&P 500 Index closing at a historic high this week, the rally was primarily driven by companies benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom, overshadowing signs of weakness in the U.S. economy and financial markets. Companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia performed strongly, while stocks in the consumer, travel, transportation, real estate, and financial sectors declined.When the S&P 500 Index reached its historic high, only 30% of its constituent stocks were trading above the 50-day moving average.

Fidelity Digital Assets Vice President Chris Kuiper stated, "The bear market may not be over." He believes that the rebound since August could either be the starting point of a new rally or just a bounce within the bear market, "an upward price movement does not guarantee the end of the bear market"; according to a four-year cycle, November is a key window to observe (the last bear market bottom was in November 2022), but he also emphasized that historical cycles have never precisely repeated, and BTC may decline again, potentially setting a new low in November or later.A more positive signal is that during the period from June to mid-August, the volatility of digital assets rapidly increased after being low, resembling the end of previous bear markets, which may indicate that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, while stablecoin transfers, RWA, and institutional participation continue to grow during the same period.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Market Betting on December Rate Hike: Can BTC Withstand This Round of Impact?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sister Mao, AlanSun, Aiden, and Crypto.0824 will engage in an in-depth discussion on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, changes in macro liquidity, and recent market trends of BTC. The focus will be on analyzing the potential impact of the rising expectations for a rate hike in December on the crypto market, as well as BTC's key support levels, long and short positions under macro pressure, and the subsequent evolution of market trends, providing investors with multi-dimensional references for market trend analysis.

The co-founder of the dark web market Empire Market, Raheim Hamilton, was sentenced to 40 years in federal prison and fined $5 million on October 5 in Chicago. His plea agreement covers approximately 1,230 bitcoins, 24.4 ethers, and three properties in Virginia.Empire Market operated from 2018 to 2020, facilitating over 4 million transactions between buyers and sellers, with a transaction volume exceeding $430 million. Investigators seized digital assets, cash, and precious metals worth $75 million in the case. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) stated that the platform required buyers and sellers to conduct transactions exclusively in cryptocurrency and encouraged the use of mixing services and encrypted communication. Buyers could also rate the effectiveness of sellers in hiding drug packages, with drug sales involved amounting to nearly $375 million.

Arthur Hayes stated that at the beginning of each super bull market, the market must overcome numerous concerns. In 2017, it was the block size debate; in 2020, it was the pandemic; in 2023, it was the FTX collapse and central bank interest rate hikes; in 2026, it will be the panic caused by AI encryption technology (FUD).The wave of money printing will eventually come, and asset prices will soar.

Bitcoin Treasuries posted on platform X that the tokenized stock Stretch (STRCx) under Strategy has a circulating market value of 158 million dollars, making it the largest tokenized stock in the world, surpassing the tokenized equity of SpaceX under Elon Musk.

According to Decrypt, Decrypt has announced that its self-custody Money Accounts are now live on Solana, providing readers with a single balance that can be used across all Decrypt products to support its financial and intelligence market, The Information Exchange. Decrypt co-founder Ilan Hazan stated that the goal is to achieve one account and one balance, allowing users to utilize various financial tools directly from where they obtain information, from prediction markets to perpetual contracts and swaps. Users can manage all positions in one place without worrying about wallets, cross-chain bridges, or public chains, with relevant partners to be announced in the coming weeks.Deposits and balances are denominated in USDT on Solana, and the same balance can support products such as Earn, Swaps, Predictions, and Perps. Gas and rent are sponsored through joint signatures by payers, so users do not need to hold SOL or consider network fees. The account operates in a self-custody mode, meaning Decrypt does not hold private keys and cannot perform operations on behalf of users, with a private key export feature coming soon. Cross-chain operations are completed at the underlying level; for example, the Myriad Predictions market settles on the BNB Chain, yet users can still trade using the same Solana USDT balance without needing to interact with a cross-chain bridge.Existing Myriad Wallet users can directly use Decrypt Money Accounts, with one account and one balance covering both Decrypt and Myriad without the need for migration.

Citrini Research, which previously published the "AI End Report," has released a new article titled "Breaking The Wall," exploring the intersection of agentic AI with cryptocurrency and traditional finance, stating that blockchain may have finally found its application scenario. The article allegedly reveals Citrini Research's investment portfolio, and related screenshots are circulating.The weight distribution of the cryptocurrency portfolio is: Derive (DRV) 10%, Lighter (LIT) 10%, Ether.fi (ETHFI) 10%, Aave (AAVE) 9%, Ethena (ENA) 9%, Solana (SOL) 8%, Hyperliquid (HYPE) 7%, Aerodrome (AERO) 7%, LayerZero (ZRO) 5%, Chainlink (LINK) 5%, Backpack (BP) 5%, Maple (SYRUP) 5%, Uniswap (UNI) 4%, Pendle (PENDLE) 3%, Ondo (ONDO) 3%.The weight distribution of the cryptocurrency market portfolio is: Securitize (SECZ) 20%, Circle (CRCL) 18%, Coinbase (COIN) 18%, Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) 14%, Robinhood (HOOD) 14%, Bullish (BLSH) 7%, Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) 5%, BlackRock (BLK) 2%, WisdomTree (WT) 2%.

Ondo's Ondo Private Markets announced that the OpenAI Private Markets Note is now available for trading on the Ondo Perps spot order book. Ondo Private Markets is dedicated to bringing the economic exposure of private companies on-chain, providing tokenized notes for qualified investors, designed to offer economic exposure linked to the performance of leading private companies. The value of the OpenAI Private Markets Note is calculated based on the realized value per share of the company's common stock, as specified in the note's issuance documents.This launch brings three core advantages. The first is the ability to buy and sell at any time: from the first day of launch, trading is available 24/7 on the Ondo Perps spot order book, without waiting for the company to go public. The second is self-custody and free transferability: users can store the tokens in their own wallets and transfer them freely among qualified holders. The third is mature infrastructure support: Ondo Private Markets is built on the same platform that created Ondo's tokenized stocks and tokenized U.S. Treasury products, with a total locked value (TVL) of $3.9 billion and over 1 million holders.The note does not represent shares or equity in OpenAI, and holders do not enjoy any shareholder rights in OpenAI. There is no affiliation, cooperation, or endorsement relationship between Ondo and OpenAI.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones down 0.36%, the S&P 500 index down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq down 0.51%.