signals

According to CoinDesk, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress for the first time on July 14 at 10 AM (Eastern Time), and traders are closely watching for signals regarding stablecoins, bank custody, and interest rate policy.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin developers are discussing the removal of the explicit Replace-by-Fee (RBF) signal from the Bitcoin Core wallet. Developer rkrux stated that since full-RBF has become the standard strategy, the BIP 125 RBF signal has become redundant and may leave unnecessary wallet chain fingerprints.Community member Murch noted that stopping the sending of replaceability signals is not simply about removing "fingerprints," as each sender still has to choose a sequence number for each input; currently, about 75% of transactions have used specific sequence numbers, primarily MAX-2. rkrux indicated that the default input sequence number should adopt best practices recognized by a broader wallet community.

According to Jinshi reports, data shows that forex traders, including hedge funds, are buying options in large quantities, betting that the dollar will strengthen further after the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals this week. Leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, and this demand continued into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller. Tobias Jungmann, head of forex options at Bank of America, stated that the buying of dollar call options is heavily concentrated in G-10 currencies. James Swindell, a forex options trader at Barclays, also noted a significant increase in demand for dollar call options, particularly in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs.

The Federal Reserve has released a hawkish signal, putting pressure on gold prices to decline. According to CoinGlass data, gold (XAUT) is currently priced at $4280.41, down 0.62% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT across the network reached $293 million, with the Gate platform performing particularly well, recording a 24-hour trading volume of $26.6557 million for its XAUT/USDT trading pair, and a 7-day trading volume exceeding $131 million, both ranking in the top two globally. In addition, the total 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts across the network reached $1.138 billion, with the Gate platform's position size around $11.9 million, ranking third among global exchanges.

According to Jinshi News, Christopher Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at the French Foreign Trade Bank in North America, believes that the Federal Reserve's statement has been significantly streamlined, with clear hawkish signals. Interest rates remain unchanged, the tendency for easing has been removed, and there were no dissenting votes. The conclusion of the statement emphasizes the commitment to achieving price stability. Overall, this is a hawkish statement.

According to Jinshi reports, Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist in the U.S., Luzzetti, stated that clear signals indicate the need to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

Glassnode published an analysis on platform X indicating that its cumulative trend score metric shows that after Bitcoin's price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has clearly shifted towards accumulation.This metric measures the intensity of accumulation behavior on-chain by combining holding size and recent balance changes, with a value close to 1 representing widespread accumulation and a value close to 0 indicating ongoing distribution.

According to Mike McGlone, Chief Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, Bitcoin has significantly led risk assets in previous upward cycles, and this leading relationship may be reversing in the current phase. In his latest comments, he stated that Bitcoin has previously "driven risk assets upward," but now "may also drive them downward," and believes that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 scaled up by 10 times, the overall β assets may enter a downward year in 2026.He emphasized that since 2009, the annual total return of the S&P 500 has only declined in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's downward cycles and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycles. He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are accumulating: inflation has re-emerged as a core political issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk indicators for commodities like gold and oil have continued to rise. This combination of "low volatility stocks + high-risk commodities" is historically rare.Additionally, McGlone stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of "mean reversion," which may indicate that the risk asset cycle is entering a repricing phase. He pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have retraced about 50% from their 2025 peak (around $126,000), while the total return index for U.S. Treasuries may be forming a phase bottom from a low area not seen since 1983.Currently, the market still lacks key confirmation signals: specifically, the S&P 500 to GDP ratio has fallen from near its highest level since 1928. If this indicator begins to turn, it may signify that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about the U.S. stock market, as an increasing number of bear market signals indicate that the market is approaching its peak. The strategist team led by Savita Subramanian noted in a report on June 5 that about 70% of bear market signals have been triggered, with 17 out of 20 valuation metrics for the S&P 500 index showing "statistically significant overvaluation." In addition, the strategists believe that the performance of high price-to-earnings ratio stocks has been too strong, indicating "signs of excessive speculation."

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "ETF Continuous Outflow, Bitcoin Decoupling from US Stocks ------ Are Institutions Running or Waiting?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sasaki Hoshino, Sevth7, Kid, and Grace will engage in an in-depth discussion around recent continuous outflows of Bitcoin ETF funds, the decreasing correlation between BTC and US stocks, and changes in institutional capital allocation logic, jointly analyzing current market sentiment and capital flows, and exploring the future direction of the crypto market.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has fallen from $82,000 to $76,800, a decline of about 6%, but market data suggests that this drop may be an unconventional correction. Three signals behind this round of decline indicate market concerns about further price drops. First, ETF fund outflows are accelerating: since May 7, over $1.5 billion has flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a single-day outflow of $648 million on Monday, the highest since January 29.Secondly, aggressive selling has occurred in both the spot and futures markets: Glassnode data shows that the cumulative volume difference in the spot market has dropped from $16,900,000 to -$126,200,000, while the cumulative volume difference in perpetual contracts has fallen to -$368,500,000, indicating that sellers are actively selling in both the spot and futures markets. Additionally, hedging demand is rising: Glassnode analysts state that the 25-Delta skew of options has increased from 10.9% to 14.4%, indicating that options market participants believe the downside risk is increasing.Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, stated that the first support level is around $76,000, followed by the $74,000-$75,000 range. If this range is broken, it could trigger a deeper correction.

Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

Analyst Murphy has released a bearish signal analysis for Bitcoin at a small scale. Currently, the CVD of Binance perpetual contracts has rapidly declined from the April high and has fallen below the 90-day median. This indicates that market bulls are unwilling to continue chasing higher prices, and bears are starting to actively sell short. The spot CVD has also begun to "peak and turn down." Historically, when this indicator turns, prices often follow with a correction, similar to November 2024 and April 2025. However, the key difference in the current market compared to the past is that the BTC CVD indicator on Coinbase remains steadily above the 90-day median line.During the same period, the 30-day net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not shown a significant decrease, and funds in the U.S. market are still supporting it. Analysts state that shorting in the short term remains a high-risk behavior, and bears still need to wait for bearish sentiment to dominate on Binance, as well as for U.S. investors' spot buying to gradually withdraw.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Harker stated that the Federal Reserve's signal regarding the next action being a rate cut is misleading.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin has currently surpassed the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, with both short-term and medium-term trends remaining bullish. In the past week, it has risen by 1.1%. Continuous buying by institutions and large enterprises increasing their Bitcoin holdings has further boosted market confidence. However, influenced by the historical pattern of "selling upon good news," the market subsequently experienced a brief consolidation.Markus Thielen's analysis suggests that with Bitcoin's dominance maintaining above 60%, some altcoins are quietly bottoming out under fundamental catalysts, particularly privacy coins and RWA infrastructure-related projects that are worth paying close attention to. Additionally, the White House advisor's hints at upcoming announcements regarding national strategic reserves and other market news are reinforcing bullish sentiment.