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first_img Kalshi permanently banned former Congressman George Santos for manipulating the attendance prediction market for the State of the Union address

The prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Congressman George Santos and fined him $71,356 for manipulating a market related to his attendance at the State of the Union address, profiting nearly $18,000. This is the first time the exchange has imposed a lifetime ban on a former member of Congress.According to a disciplinary notice issued by Kalshi's compliance department on August 28, Santos conducted multiple large transactions in this market between February 2 and 25. Since he was able to influence the outcome, exchange rules prohibited him from participating in trading. He subsequently issued a series of public statements regarding his attendance, some of which were false or misleading, intending to drive price movements in the "Yes" and "No" contracts. The compliance department determined that these statements did indeed manipulate prices, allowing him to profit $17,839.57 in the relevant market, violating multiple rules regarding market manipulation, influencing trading outcomes, and using deceptive practices, and he faced additional penalties for failing to cooperate with the investigation.The prediction market allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, sports, and economic data by purchasing "Yes" or "No" contracts. As event contracts have become mainstream, Kalshi and its crypto-native competitor Polymarket have seen a surge in trading volume over the past year, attracting significant institutional interest.

first_img Kalshi permanently banned former Congressman Santos for his involvement in trading based on the State of the Union address

According to The Block, the prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Congressman George Santos, marking the first time the platform has imposed a permanent ban on an individual. According to a disciplinary action and settlement notice submitted on Monday, Santos violated platform rules by trading on a prediction contract regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union (SOTU) address and was fined over $71,000.Previously, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused Santos of using his public statements made two weeks before the SOTU to influence the prices of related event contracts and reached a $35,000 settlement with him. Santos's lawyer stated that he had booked a hotel and flight to Washington, believing he would attend the event. Santos served as a congressman representing New York from January 2023 until the end of the year, when he was expelled for ethical violations.As the prediction market grows to billions of dollars, concerns about insider trading are increasingly being raised. The CFTC recently fined former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez $172,000 for profiting in Kalshi's "mention market" by using advance access to Trump's speech content. Legislators have proposed several bipartisan bills to restrict trading on non-public information, but they have not yet passed; platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are taking preventive measures, such as requiring employment verification for sensitive market traders.

hot_img U.S. Senator demands that Waller disclose his conversations with Trump, questioning the transparency of the Federal Reserve

Nick Timiraos, the chief economic reporter for The Wall Street Journal and known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," recently wrote that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is facing intense scrutiny from Congress. On Wednesday local time, four members of the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Chris Van Hollen, jointly sent a letter to Warsh, demanding that he publicly disclose all communication details with President Donald Trump.Earlier reports indicated that Warsh had maintained frequent phone contact with Trump since taking office, but the publicly available schedule from the Federal Reserve does not record any related calls during Warsh's early days in office. Lawmakers believe that this "selective transparency" could raise concerns about government interference in monetary policy.Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, previously stated that Warsh has long engaged in economic discussions with Trump but claimed that Trump would not pressure the Federal Reserve. Trump later denied the related reports, stating that he had only had a brief conversation with Warsh a few days prior.Currently, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will continue to delay the disclosure of the chairman's schedule according to established rules. The market is watching to see if Warsh will provide additional information and whether this matter will affect public confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee: The CLARITY Act will be voted on before Congress goes into recess

According to BeInCrypto, Tim Scott, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, stated that the CLARITY Act, aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency market, will be voted on before Congress goes into recess, and "there will undoubtedly be a vote."In an interview with Fox News, Scott mentioned that the Senate might extend its working hours, not limited to the next two days, to push forward the relevant legislation. He noted that there is a consensus forming within the Republican Party regarding the bill and believes that advancing a cryptocurrency regulatory framework "is in the interest of the United States."Tim Scott stated, "We will get this done."The CLARITY Act aims to further clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, delineating the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the cryptocurrency market. Supporters believe that the bill will provide clearer rules for the industry and help the U.S. maintain its competitiveness in the digital asset space.Currently, the bill still faces internal congressional disputes regarding consumer protection, regulatory authority, and market risks. If ultimately passed, it will be an important step in building the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory system.

Next week's macro outlook: Waller's congressional hearing coincides with CPI, and the market anticipates more clues on interest rate prospects

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

The U.S. Congress discusses the Federal Reserve's "streamlining of the master account" and evaluates whether cryptocurrency and fintech companies can directly connect to the central bank's payment system

On Wednesday, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee held a hearing to discuss the changing roles of banks and fintech companies, with one focus being the "streamlined master account" proposal that the Federal Reserve is considering, which would allow certain crypto banks and fintech companies limited direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment system. A Federal Reserve master account allows financial institutions to directly use the Federal Reserve payment network and gain the most direct access to the U.S. dollar monetary system. Institutions without this account typically need to rely on partner banks that have master accounts to provide services.The so-called "streamlined account" is a limited-function version intended to provide limited access for new financial institutions. Republican Congressman Dan Meuser stated at the hearing that access to the Federal Reserve payment system is no small matter, and the core issue is which institutions should be allowed to directly use these critical payment channels. Traditional institutions like community banks are concerned that crypto and fintech companies are not subject to equally stringent regulation, and direct access could pose risks to security and stability. The crypto industry generally supports the proposal, arguing that direct access to the Federal Reserve payment system should have been opened long ago, as it would help reduce reliance on intermediary banks and promote innovation.In May of this year, Trump also signed an executive order requiring the Federal Reserve to assess policies for opening central bank payment channels to fintech companies, including crypto companies. Previously, the Kansas City Federal Reserve had approved Kraken's parent company Payward for a "limited purpose account" in March, sparking discussions in the market about the extent to which crypto and fintech companies should have direct access to Federal Reserve services. A representative from Anchorage Digital stated at the hearing that if the U.S. wants to continue as a global financial center, it needs to allow for innovative federal and state regulatory frameworks.
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