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Analyst: Bitcoin may be entering the end of a bear market, expected to rise to $250,000 in the next two to three years

Real Vision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of this bear market. Although the bear market has not ended, the downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price has fallen about 50% from the historical high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts referred to the current trend as a "typical bear market" and pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50% compared to the previous cycle, which suggests that this decline may not be as severe as the previous bear market. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators are still clearly bearish, and the market will not mechanically replicate historical cycles.He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence, indicating that negative momentum is slowing down, but this does not mean that Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. In addition to the tightening of global liquidity, the deterioration of on-chain demand has also been a significant reason for Bitcoin's decline. Regarding long-term price predictions, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He prefers to predict that BTC will rise to between $200,000 and $250,000 in the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to more clearly address the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, as significant protocol upgrades may take about five years.

Next week's macro outlook: Waller's congressional hearing coincides with CPI, and the market anticipates more clues on interest rate prospects

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

1confirmation Founder: The next round of user growth in the crypto market may be driven by the tokenization of RWA

Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated on the X platform that bringing real-world assets (RWA) on-chain will become an important direction for driving the next phase of development in the cryptocurrency industry and is expected to lead to large-scale consumer adoption. The core value of bringing RWA on-chain lies in enabling global users to access asset classes that were previously difficult to obtain. "Global accessibility" has always been one of the most attractive features of the cryptocurrency industry and is also a key reason for the success of crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.Nick Tomaino believes that crypto assets that drive new behaviors and are built on concepts that go beyond mere monetary value will continue to exist in the long term. However, as the market gradually realizes that the cost of creating tokens is close to zero, the model of relying solely on token issuance to drive price increases is difficult to sustain. The growth cycle of many "speculative tokens" is coming to an end, and the market will enter a new growth phase driven by tokens backed by real assets. Currently, stablecoins have become the most mature case of RWA applications, and in the coming year, the on-chainization of assets such as stocks, commodities, government bonds, corporate bonds, and real estate is expected to accelerate further.Nick Tomaino mentioned that on-chain physical collectibles (such as sports cards and jerseys) could become one of the most worthwhile directions for building and investing in RWA today. As the speculative-driven token cycle gradually recedes, on-chain assets supported by real assets and practical use cases will be key to attracting the next batch of users into the cryptocurrency market.

Michael Saylor: The biggest evolution of BTC in the next decade is the stability of the protocol layer, while expanding in the capital markets and application layer

Michael Saylor stated that the biggest evolution of Bitcoin in the next decade will come from fewer changes at the protocol layer and a greater role in other areas. He believes that the foundational layer of Bitcoin will become more solid, capital markets will continue to deepen, applications will expand, institutions will enter, and the world will build on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a tech stock, a payment company, or a software platform competing to add features, but a monetary network whose purpose is not to act quickly and disrupt things, but to move slowly and remain unbroken.Saylor indicated that Bitcoin has won the first important battle, and the world is increasingly understanding that Bitcoin is digital capital, possessing attributes such as scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, programmability, and global transferability. The strongest version of Bitcoin is not to "replace all payment rails," but to become a neutral, global, scarce asset around which capital, credit, and commerce are organized. The foundational layer is not optimized for coffee payments, but designed for final settlement, reserve assets, collateral settlement, and ultimate ownership transfer.He believes that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is still important, but no longer the dominant model. In the next decade, Bitcoin's price movements will be driven less by miner issuance and more by capital flows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign reserves, bank credit, derivatives, insurance, collateral, and global savings. Halving will tighten supply, while capital flows will determine the growth trajectory. Digital credit will accelerate Bitcoin adoption, connecting Bitcoin capital with the broader financial system.Saylor stated that the main question in the next decade is not whether Bitcoin can survive, but whether economic exposure is still connected to real Bitcoin or if too much "paper Bitcoin" is being formed. Custodial transparency, proof of reserves, risk management, capital structure, and counterparty risk will all become important.He expects that by 2036, Bitcoin will be more widely held, more deeply institutionalized, more politically significant, and become an important collateral asset in the digital credit market; while the foundational protocol itself may change less than everything built around it.
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