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Data: Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a low point not seen in the past two years, and the market may be brewing for significant fluctuations

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's current volatility has compressed to very low levels, and the market has not yet formed a clear direction. The Bollinger Band width is currently around 3.8% to 3.9%, one of the lowest levels in the past two years, while it was still at double-digit levels at the beginning of July. He pointed out that a significant narrowing of the Bollinger Bands usually indicates that the market is entering a compression phase before volatility expansion, but this indicator alone cannot determine the direction of the next market trend.In terms of trend strength, the Bitcoin ADX indicator has currently dropped to 11, close to recent lows, and is significantly below the 25 threshold used by its model to confirm trends. Currently, TrendActive has not yet been activated, and neither bullish nor bearish signals have appeared; the last directional signal at the beginning of July was bearish, but the current market structure no longer confirms this signal. Adler stated that for the market to enter a new trend phase, the Bollinger Band width needs to expand again from the current compressed state, while the ADX breaks above 25. Subsequently, the direction can be judged based on the relationship between +DI and -DI: if one side leads by more than 5 points, it may trigger the corresponding bullish or bearish signal. He believes that Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase, with both volatility and trend strength at low levels, and the risk of a false breakout in the short term still exists. The current structure increases the possibility of significant volatility expansion in the future, but it is still unclear whether the price will ultimately break upwards or downwards.

Wintermute: Capital rotation is withdrawing from the Bitcoin narrative, institutions may be accumulating as planned

Wintermute released a report stating that the upcoming U.S. CPI data to be announced on Wednesday will be key in testing whether the recent interest rate repricing can be sustained. The cryptocurrency market has joined the ranks of rising risk appetite. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, totaling $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April; the Ethereum ETF has also seen a net inflow for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by $244.9 million, with BlackRock accounting for over 80% of the combined inflow of $1.1 billion for both.These inflows occurred against a backdrop of relatively low trading volume, more characteristic of institutional planned allocations rather than aggressive momentum buying, and reversed the narrative of fund rotation away from Bitcoin over the past two weeks, indicating that ETF demand is being matched by supply from elsewhere.On the institutional front, Wells Fargo announced it will launch a tokenized deposit business this fall, starting with the USD-GBP corridor and operating on its own chain, joining the ranks of JPMorgan and Citigroup to bring settlement rails on-chain.Meanwhile, the Senate Majority Leader submitted a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act early Saturday morning, which will undergo procedural voting on September 15, requiring support from at least seven non-Republican senators. The improvement in ETF inflows is encouraging but still represents a preliminary signal. A strong weekly performance alone is insufficient to confirm a structural shift; the entire risk asset sector has just been repriced due to one piece of data. If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations and pushes the probability of a rate hike in September back above 50%, it could quickly alter the core logic supporting the current upward trend.Recent key catalysts include the CPI on August 12, the PPI on the 13th, retail sales data on the 14th, followed by the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27-29, and the vote to end debate on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Until ETF inflows and digital asset treasury activities prove their sustainability throughout the remainder of the summer, it is advisable to remain cautious, even as the market increasingly trades on institutional terms.

hot_img Expected direction of South Korea's secondary regulations on security tokens: allowing asset pooling and setting trading limits for general investors

According to the expected plan compiled by the Korea Digital Convergence Industry Association, the secondary regulations for Security Token Offerings (STO) in South Korea may include: allowing "pooling" issuance of similar types of underlying assets, setting over-the-counter trading limits for general investors, clarifying the licensing conditions and business scope for non-standard securities over-the-counter exchanges, and developing a phased roadmap for the tokenization of standard securities. In addition, the technical and financial requirements for issuer account management institutions are also expected to be included in the regulations.This expected plan is based on publicly available policy directions and industry discussions and is not an official version. Specific standards still need to be determined through legislative announcements, regulatory reviews, and other procedures. Previously, the STO market was primarily focused on single assets; if pooling is allowed, it could promote the issuance of multi-asset composite products such as music copyrights and real estate. The over-the-counter trading limits for general investors are expected to be higher than existing sandbox cases, but the final limits still need to balance investor protection and market liquidity. The status of non-standard securities over-the-counter trading platforms and existing operators, as well as the future path for the tokenization of standard securities (stocks, bonds), will be key focuses moving forward. The industry warns that after the regulations are implemented, the preparation time for related companies' systems and internal controls may be quite urgent.

Analysis: The average time from Tether's freeze proposal to execution exceeds 2 hours, allowing high-risk addresses to transfer funds by taking advantage of the time difference

FlashRescue co-founder @DarcyAri posted on the X platform that recently, during a joint investigation with partners on a case, Tether experienced a transfer of funds from one address during the execution of a proposal to freeze addresses, resulting in a decrease in the frozen amount. Further review by FlashRescue revealed that this is not an isolated incident. As of August 3, 2026, through an analysis of 2,955 Tether freeze events on the Ethereum and Tron networks, it was found that among addresses involved in risks such as entity sanctions, fraudulent activities, money laundering, FATF blacklist jurisdictions, and malicious attacks: 60 addresses cleared their assets and completed front-running transfers before the formal execution of the freeze, with a total net outflow of 20,429,847 USDT, starting transfers an average of 13 minutes and 59 seconds after the freeze proposal was submitted, and completing the main fund transfers within 15 minutes and 15 seconds; additionally, 113 addresses transferred some assets before the freeze was executed, involving approximately 35,524,300 USDT.The average time from the submission of the freeze proposal to the formal execution of the freeze by Tether is 2 hours, 16 minutes, and 15 seconds, indicating a long time window between the public announcement of the freeze proposal and its actual execution. On July 3, a cluster of addresses transferred funds continuously within minutes and then split the transfers to the same address. The above cases suggest that some high-risk addresses may be actively monitoring Tether freeze proposals and utilizing the time difference between the public announcement of the proposal and the actual effectiveness of the freeze to implement front-running transfers. This mechanism leads to the failure of freezing the involved funds and undermines the actual effectiveness of sanctions, anti-money laundering, and law enforcement cooperation measures.
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