sideways

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that the Bitcoin bear market cycle has ended, and a bull market or sideways consolidation is expected in the next 12 to 24 months.Previously, on March 18, 2025, he predicted that the Bitcoin bull market cycle would end, leading to a bear market or sideways consolidation for 6 to 12 months, and now officially announces the end of that predicted cycle.

According to Cointelegraph, the global bond bear market continues to ferment, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield rising to 3% on Tuesday, the first time since 1996; the 30-year government bond yield also broke through the historical high of 4.18%. The U.S. 10-year government bond yield simultaneously rose to a multi-year high of 4.78%, and global long-term sovereign bond yields are at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.In this context, Bitcoin remains in a sideways consolidation, maintaining around $78,000, slightly retreating from an earlier high of nearly $79,000. There is a dense resistance area between the current spot price and $86,000, which limits Bitcoin's upward momentum. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic in the short term, with the $76,000 to $82,000 range seen as a key battleground in the coming weeks.This round of selling occurred after U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced an increase in the upper limit of government bond repurchase transactions to $4 billion starting in September, with some commentators likening it to a form of yield curve control. Arthur Hayes has long argued that the Federal Reserve will eventually activate the FIMA repo facility, a mechanism that will create new dollar liquidity, which is also why he recommends allocating Bitcoin, gold, and cryptocurrencies; Yellen hinted at the future use of this tool as early as August.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin has been hovering around $80,000 for most of this week, which may cause Strategy's Bitcoin strategy to lose its operational basis. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoins and needs to pay approximately $1.5 billion in dividends for STRK and STRC each year.The enterprise value mNAV of digital asset treasury company Strategy is approximately 1.01 times, with the underlying mNAV and diluted mNAV being approximately 0.73 times and 0.74 times, respectively, as of August 27, which is close to the book value of its held Bitcoins. Arthur Hayes pointed out that Michael Saylor can choose to issue new shares, directly sell Bitcoins, or cut preferred stock dividends. The dividend yield for STRK is 8%, while the dividend yield for STRC is between 10% and 11.5%.

Jiang Zhuoer released a historical cycle comparison chart of Bitcoin on platform X, stating that if the low point of this cycle is around $57,800, based on historical cycle trends, the current market adjustment in terms of magnitude and duration is already quite close to the previous three cycles, and a large number of investors may currently be in a "missed out" state.Jiang Zhuoer mentioned that as the market continues to consolidate and fluctuate, the anxiety of investors missing out on the market (FOMO) may gradually intensify. Once capital flows back in, the space for further market decline may be limited. He believes that the subsequent trend may reference the "golden pit" in the market at the end of 2021, at which point a brief buying opportunity during a pullback may arise.

Swissblock stated that the initial momentum launch of Bitcoin failed to form an effective breakthrough, and the momentum indicators have now returned to the "transition zone."If BTC can hold the range of $62,300 to $62,500, the current consolidation structure is still expected to be maintained.

Renowned trader Doctor Profit posted that a historical indicator for Bitcoin is signaling that "the bottom has either formed or is very close." In 2015, 2019, and 2022, the bear market bottom formation phase began when the realized price of holders for 3 to 6 months fell below the realized price of holders for 1 to 2 years. He believes this indicates that newer buyers are capitulating and selling at a loss, with Bitcoin gradually transferring to longer-term holders.Currently, this crossover is appearing for the fourth time, while the BTC price is below the average cost of both categories of holders. However, historically, this signal does not immediately lead to a reversal; Bitcoin typically experiences several months of sideways movement to complete the bottoming process, so this phase can also be seen as a long-term accumulation range. He believes we are currently in the bottom formation and long-term accumulation phase of the bear market. Doctor Profit stated that over the past few weeks, he has been gradually buying BTC in batches within the range of $54,000 to $64,000, continuing to build his position incrementally with 5% of his portfolio each time.

David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, stated that Bitcoin's current trend faces two possible paths: sideways consolidation or a final round of panic selling.He believes that Bitcoin is more likely to enter a sideways consolidation phase, with the bottom having basically appeared.

According to Jin Ten, during the Asian trading session, the Singapore dollar against the US dollar maintained a sideways consolidation, but the prospect of the Federal Reserve possibly keeping high interest rates for a longer period may put it under pressure.Analysts from CIMB International Treasury and Market Research pointed out that, given inflation remains high, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Richmond Fed President Barkin have both signaled that further rate cuts may take longer.

According to Coindesk, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in an interview that cryptocurrencies are in the late stages of a bear market bottom, paving a volatile yet constructive path for stronger developments in 2026.Cryptocurrencies spent most of 2025 in a bear market, with many altcoins dropping over 60%. Bitcoin avoided larger losses, mainly due to continued buying from corporations and ETFs. He described the current situation as a "narrowing bottom," characterized by weak ETF fund flows and low retail participation.Hougan expects Bitcoin to trade sideways between $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of this year. He reiterated his view that Bitcoin could reach around $6.5 million per coin in the next 20 years. Hougan stated that the core assumption is not accelerated adoption, but rather the continued growth of global debt, monetary expansion, and currency devaluation.He believes Bitcoin is an upgraded version of gold, and central banks are just beginning to understand its role. "As long as the future does not change significantly from the past 15 years, we can achieve our goal. It's just a matter of time."

According to Jinshi reports, the dollar is consolidating sideways as investors become more cautious ahead of key data releases in search of clues about the future path of U.S. interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will be released at 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday. Chairman Powell has stated that another rate cut in December is not a certainty. However, the most closely watched data this week remains the delayed non-farm payroll data for September, which will be released on Thursday. Given the current mixed views in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, the importance of this data is further highlighted.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha released a report indicating that the recent price trend of Bitcoin has narrowed, reflecting a cooling in on-chain activity and derivatives trading activity, specifically manifested as a decline in spot trading volume, weakened buying pressure on market orders, and a decrease in open interest, highlighting that the market is shifting from an aggressive upward phase to a range-bound consolidation phase. The realized price for short-term Bitcoin holders is around $98,700, which has become a key structural support level. During price pullbacks, buyers often accumulate Bitcoin at this level, particularly evident during the recent market pullback caused by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.Bitfinex pointed out that, based on historical data, the third quarter is the weakest quarter for Bitcoin, with an average return of only 6.03%, significantly lower than the 27.12% in the second quarter, and this quarter often experiences lower volatility. This seasonal pattern, combined with the current technical situation, suggests that Bitcoin prices may continue to consolidate sideways unless significant macroeconomic events or favorable factors related to ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) break this trend.

ChainCatcher message indicates that, according to SoSoValue data, the encrypted market has seen a slight rebound in some sectors, with the PayFi sector rising 2.52% in 24 hours. Within this sector, XRP increased by 3.14%, and Keeta (KTA) regained momentum, rising by 17.80%.In addition, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $105,000, while Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.05%, dropping below $2,500.In other sectors, the RWA sector rose by 1.14% in 24 hours, and the Layer1 sector increased by 0.24%. Within this sector, Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) rose by 1.30% and 1.61%, respectively. The CeFi sector rose by 0.08%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE), OKB, and Cronos (CRO) increasing by 1.16%, 1.25%, and 1.28%, respectively. The DeFi sector fell by 0.84%, and the Meme sector decreased by 1.21%, while Bonk (BONK) and SPX6900 (SPX) rose against the trend by 1.68% and 4.17%, respectively. The Layer2 sector fell by 1.73%.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiPayFi, ssiMAG7, and ssiCeFi indices fell by 2.64%, 0.19%, and 0.09%, respectively, in 24 hours.

ChainCatcher news, Lookonchain posted data on social media indicating that since May 11, BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF ETHA has accumulated an increase of 214,000 ETH, worth approximately $560 million, while during this period, the price of ETH has been consolidating between $2,500 and $2,700.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's analysis, believes that the recent stock market rally is a tactical rebound brought about by asset managers reallocating risk assets, rather than a shift based on any macro fundamentals.The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the broader political landscape remains a focal point for the market. Trump hinted at more tariff measures before the April 2 deadline. However, the market still lacks a clear understanding of the scope, timing, and magnitude of these potential actions. Before this, we expect the market to continue exhibiting sideways fluctuations.In the digital asset space, we believe that Bitcoin has room for tactical performance advantages in the short term. Surprisingly, GameStop has incorporated Bitcoin into its balance sheet. While this is not the first instance of corporate adoption of cryptocurrency, GameStop's symbolic significance as a "meme stock" may reignite retail investors' speculative enthusiasm. As the market performance in 2021 reminded us, if coordinated, retail capital flows have the ability to challenge institutional investors' positions.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X that Bitcoin may experience a pullback or consolidate for months.He stated that it is still uncertain whether the bull market cycle has ended, as other on-chain indicators remain bullish. Ki Young Ju specifically cautioned leveraged traders to remain cautious.