Grayscale's Managing Director Zach Pandl stated that with the approval of spot ETFs in 2024 and Trump's election, the cryptocurrency industry will see more small-scale breakthroughs in 2025. These breakthroughs include an increase in institutional adoption, Congress introducing a more comprehensive legislative framework, and Bitcoin potentially becoming a reserve asset for the United States. In a conversation with Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Asset Financial Professionals Association, Pandl mentioned that it is not "completely impossible" for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030.

The PPI data released on Tuesday showed that the PPI in the U.S. rose 0.2% month-on-month in December and increased 3.3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. This data indicates that inflationary pressures in the U.S. have not intensified, easing market tensions. The U.S. stock market initially rose in the morning session on the news but then experienced significant volatility, ultimately resulting in a slight decline of 0.23% for the Nasdaq index, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices rose 0.11% and 0.52%, respectively.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randall Quarles stated that even if Donald Trump is re-elected as president, the independence of the Federal Reserve, the level of inflation, and the labor market will not be threatened. He pointed out that there is a misunderstanding about the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that the president can express opinions on the Fed's policies, but this does not mean that the Fed will lose its independence. Quarles, who served as Vice Chairman for Supervision during Trump's administration, mentioned that tariffs themselves do not directly lead to inflation and may instead prompt the Fed to lower interest rates.

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, lowering the expected cuts this year from 100 basis points to 75 basis points, and noted that reports about a rebound in core inflation have been exaggerated. According to the report, the annualized increase in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but still below the 2.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a continued trend of declining inflation.

Famous journalist Nick Timiraos pointed out in The Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserve is reassessing the potential impact of the Trump administration on the U.S. economy and inflation. Sources revealed that Fed Chairman Powell expressed dissatisfaction with some officials' public comments, believing they too directly linked the Fed's policies to changes in Trump's policies. Currently, the market generally expects the Fed's future rate cuts to be slower and more cautious.

On December 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly higher than October's 2.6%, and in line with market expectations. Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, up from last month's 0.2%, marking the largest increase since April of this year. The core CPI remained at 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, unchanged from the previous value.

On December 10, during an interview with FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce proposed three recommendations for the new SEC under the Trump administration to address cryptocurrency regulation. First, she suggested halting the government's regulatory bottlenecks on obtaining services related to cryptocurrencies to promote industry growth. Second, Peirce emphasized the need to clarify which matters fall outside the SEC's jurisdiction and which are not securities, thereby reducing the regulatory burden on relevant entities. Finally, she called for collaboration with entities involved in cryptocurrencies to explore the applicability of existing rules and necessary adjustments, believing that this process should take place in public to allow for broad participation and swift consensus.

On December 6, Trump announced the appointment of PayPal co-founder David Sacks as the head of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency affairs at the White House. In the statement, Trump said Sacks would work to establish a legal framework to meet the cryptocurrency industry's demand for clarity, thereby promoting its development in the United States.

In the early morning of December 5, Trump announced on the social media platform Truth Social the nomination of Paul Atkins as the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He stated, "I am pleased to announce that Paul Atkins is the next chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."

Matrixport's latest report points out that three key cabinet nominees nominated by Trump will be responsible for the Treasury Department, the Department of Commerce, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and they are generally seen as supporters of cryptocurrency. These nominations are expected to accelerate the integration of cryptocurrency into the U.S. economy. If these nominations are confirmed, the market narrative in 2024 may shift from "Bitcoin as digital gold" to a revival of decentralized finance (DeFi), with traditional finance gradually integrating DeFi applications and blockchain technology to enhance payment and transaction efficiency. Although clear regulations are expected to be introduced, this shift could make cryptocurrency the biggest beneficiary of this election and promote global acceptance of cryptocurrency.

On November 27, a report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that although inflation indicators met expectations, the data for October rebounded to 2.8% compared to September, supporting a more cautious approach by Federal Reserve officials when considering future interest rate cuts. The core PCE price index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices and is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, in line with expectations, and is the highest level since April of this year, while the data for September was 2.7%.

Trump concept stocks fell broadly in pre-market trading, with Trump Media & Technology Group down nearly 11% and Phunware down over 8%. Additionally, Bitcoin fell below $57,000, and several cryptocurrency concept stocks also declined in pre-market, with MARA Holdings, MicroStrategy, and CleanSpark down about 3.8%, and Riot Platforms and Coinbase down over 2%. Trump had previously shifted to publicly support cryptocurrencies. Tesla fell over 1% in pre-market, and Musk has expressed support for Trump and participated in his fundraising activities.

The market is waiting for tomorrow night's U.S. inflation data, with little fluctuation in the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices before the market opens. The release of the iPhone 16 has led to a nearly 1% drop in Apple’s pre-market stock. The latest survey from the New York Fed shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next three years have risen, with mixed expectations for the labor market.

Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reigniting concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy and leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. Both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by as much as 3% at one point, but the losses subsequently narrowed. As expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, European and American stock markets rebounded significantly, with most star tech stocks rising, and Tesla gaining over 2%.

Although the U.S. CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, the lowest since 2021, the core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month, higher than expected, indicating that inflation in the U.S. remains sticky. Traders sharply cut aggressive rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week rising from 66% to 85%. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields surged in the short term, while U.S. stocks fell over 1% at the beginning of trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 743 points, breaking below the 40,000 mark.

The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau released the latest CPI data yesterday, showing that the consumer price index growth rate in August fell to 2.5%, below the expected 2.6% and lower than July's 2.9%. This marks the fifth consecutive month of slowdown and is the lowest level since March 2021. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate for August, excluding food and energy prices, is 3.2%, matching both the expected value and the previous value. However, the month-on-month core CPI growth rate is slightly higher than expected at 0.3%, causing the month-on-month core CPI data to slightly exceed expectations, which reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this year. After the CPI data was released, the market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this month has increased from 66% yesterday to 85%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has decreased to 15%.

Recently, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have changed significantly, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 50%. This data is based on the latest pricing from swap market traders, a substantial increase from 15% on Thursday, reflecting growing confidence in the Fed's imminent larger rate cuts. As expectations for rate cuts have risen, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index rising by 4% and 6%, respectively, marking the largest weekly gains of the year. This change has also triggered a strong rebound in small-cap stocks, as investors flock to stocks that benefit from monetary easing policies.

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although factors such as reduced income and whale exits have caused a significant drop in $ETH recently, the market remains largely optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seems to be easing its stance on the proposed crypto accounting policy SAB-121, allowing banks to adopt a "bankruptcy isolation" approach to custody customer assets, thereby circumventing some regulations. According to an analysis by the head of research at Galaxy, SEC Chief Accountant Paul Munter has proposed some exemption conditions that allow bank holding companies and introducing brokers to be exempt from the custody requirements in SAB-121.

After experiencing a "summer storm," the U.S. stock market is gradually recovering, mainly thanks to the strong performance of the 493 components of the S&P 500 index, excluding the seven tech giants. Since mid-July, tech stocks have overall declined by 5.3%, but the S&P 500 index has dropped by less than 1%, demonstrating the resilience of other sectors such as real estate and utilities, which have risen by 11% respectively. Over the past two years, tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft have been the main drivers of the market due to their profit growth and artificial intelligence initiatives. However, as concerns about slowing economic growth intensify and expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve rise, investors are beginning to shift towards traditional sectors such as real estate and consumer staples.